Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith



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Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.009
Median0.129
Mean3.786
75% Quartile1.068
Interquartile Range1.059

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
179.358
248.717
337.410
429.054
523.379
617.037
713.402
810.586
98.324
106.925
115.933
124.996
134.374
143.817
153.287
162.919
172.531
182.186
191.921
201.734
211.569
221.396
231.294
241.150
251.069
261.002
270.906
280.836
290.764
300.688
310.626
320.566
330.523
340.486
350.435
360.399
370.365
380.336
390.313
400.286
410.261
420.244
430.230
440.212
450.197
460.181
470.168
480.152
490.141
500.129
510.119
520.110
530.100
540.091
550.082
560.073
570.068
580.063
590.058
600.052
610.046
620.042
630.039
640.035
650.032
660.029
670.027
680.024
690.021
700.019
710.016
720.015
730.012
740.011
750.009
760.008
770.006
780.005
790.004
800.002
810.001
820.000
830.000
840.000
850.000
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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