Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep4.9682.7810.0005.13330.615
Sep-Oct9.8152.9970.0009.98074.455
Sep-Nov11.0662.9970.00010.95079.286

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.04935.878
206.24023.135
303.27414.834
401.8407.686
501.0603.356
600.5741.187
700.2650.416
800.0770.109
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.93767.992
229.25057.782
325.10753.771
422.33750.465
520.00848.012
618.16144.586
716.64942.166
815.36339.892
914.23237.607
1013.04935.878
1112.00234.434
1211.05232.827
1310.27431.599
149.53930.360
158.87328.986
168.12327.886
177.66426.591
187.10025.259
196.62624.075
206.24023.135
215.83022.220
225.42321.193
235.06920.471
244.80519.410
254.52118.741
264.24218.162
273.99417.277
283.72716.570
293.48315.745
303.27414.834
313.07313.999
322.88613.150
332.73812.480
342.59311.822
352.46010.924
362.33910.214
372.1899.513
382.0648.870
391.9508.352
401.8407.686
411.7207.061
421.6346.613
431.5396.245
441.4615.758
451.3795.338
461.3124.890
471.2524.503
481.1734.030
491.1063.695
501.0603.356
511.0183.068
520.9652.800
530.9132.509
540.8702.253
550.8282.016
560.7731.756
570.7181.615
580.6671.483
590.6171.348
600.5741.187
610.5421.042
620.5000.946
630.4730.863
640.4420.769
650.4090.702
660.3800.639
670.3490.584
680.3200.518
690.2930.457
700.2650.416
710.2450.366
720.2190.329
730.1960.289
740.1810.257
750.1610.225
760.1430.198
770.1260.172
780.1090.150
790.0950.131
800.0770.109
810.0660.090
820.0530.075
830.0410.059
840.0300.047
850.0180.038
860.0070.027
870.0000.018
880.0000.011
890.0000.004
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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