Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr0.5720.0000.0000.18416.860
Apr-May1.7940.0000.0000.37748.746
Apr-Jun4.2500.6770.0000.58496.385

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.018
202.199
301.014
400.485
500.248
600.115
700.050
800.013
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.833
245.088
333.215
425.412
520.510
615.292
712.356
810.071
98.201
107.018
116.160
125.332
134.769
144.255
153.754
163.400
173.017
182.669
192.396
202.199
212.023
221.834
231.722
241.559
251.467
261.390
271.277
281.194
291.107
301.014
310.937
320.861
330.806
340.757
350.690
360.642
370.596
380.556
390.524
400.485
410.449
420.424
430.404
440.378
450.355
460.331
470.311
480.285
490.267
500.248
510.232
520.217
530.200
540.185
550.170
560.154
570.145
580.136
590.127
600.115
610.104
620.097
630.090
640.083
650.077
660.072
670.067
680.060
690.054
700.050
710.045
720.041
730.037
740.033
750.029
760.025
770.022
780.019
790.016
800.013
810.010
820.007
830.004
840.002
850.001
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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