Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Aug6.0433.6952.1630.0001.79821.391
Aug-Sep11.0605.0184.9430.0006.72627.292
Aug-Oct16.0145.5245.1590.00011.62559.502

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.96841.225
2030.75827.615
3023.68218.750
4017.72810.943
5013.3125.621
609.4222.358
706.4170.966
803.8510.316
901.8110.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
171.89075.534
261.85564.626
356.75560.340
453.63556.809
551.07554.188
648.24550.528
746.06747.942
843.97245.513
942.38543.072
1040.96841.225
1139.65639.682
1238.34537.966
1337.34536.654
1436.21635.330
1535.13633.863
1634.29832.688
1733.32331.305
1832.42329.883
1931.60728.619
2030.75827.615
2129.87126.638
2228.94925.543
2328.18624.771
2427.37223.639
2526.73922.925
2626.14922.307
2725.50321.361
2824.77920.606
2924.27919.725
3023.68218.750
3122.79617.854
3222.28216.942
3321.60416.221
3421.04615.510
3520.43514.536
3619.96413.760
3719.26612.990
3818.80612.277
3918.21311.697
4017.72810.943
4117.24210.226
4216.8299.705
4316.4129.272
4415.9828.690
4515.5308.179
4615.1417.623
4714.7567.135
4814.3206.523
4913.7466.080
5013.3125.621
5112.9225.223
5212.5594.844
5312.2004.424
5411.7504.046
5511.3683.687
5611.0073.284
5710.5453.061
5810.1262.848
599.7162.628
609.4222.358
619.1072.112
628.7341.945
638.3931.798
648.1111.631
657.8031.509
667.4851.392
677.2031.289
686.9201.164
696.7021.046
706.4170.966
716.2020.866
725.8200.791
735.4980.709
745.2330.642
755.0280.573
764.7650.516
774.5630.459
784.3040.411
794.0690.368
803.8510.316
813.5910.272
823.3290.234
833.0790.195
842.8940.166
852.7130.143
862.5470.115
872.3600.089
882.1920.071
892.0000.051
901.8110.031
911.6070.016
921.4000.000
931.2030.000
941.0340.000
950.8270.000
960.6420.000
970.4390.000
980.2400.000
990.0160.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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