Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep5.0171.3232.7810.0004.92830.615
Sep-Oct9.9711.8292.9970.0009.82874.455
Sep-Nov11.2521.8832.9970.00010.80279.286

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.61735.878
2021.08023.135
3015.19714.834
4010.6637.686
506.9733.356
604.3291.187
702.5340.416
801.3050.109
900.4150.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
153.51867.992
246.78657.782
342.36253.771
439.42650.465
536.89948.012
635.30544.586
733.61542.166
832.02539.892
930.81337.607
1029.61735.878
1128.64734.434
1227.58932.827
1326.70131.599
1425.81530.360
1524.90428.986
1623.97327.886
1723.04026.591
1822.30125.259
1921.67824.075
2021.08023.135
2120.46322.220
2219.87421.193
2319.04720.471
2418.58019.410
2517.97618.741
2617.38618.162
2716.76617.277
2816.32316.570
2915.68715.745
3015.19714.834
3114.72213.999
3214.14613.150
3313.59712.480
3413.14111.822
3512.66610.924
3612.19710.214
3711.8699.513
3811.4428.870
3911.0658.352
4010.6637.686
4110.2107.061
429.8376.613
439.3576.245
449.0335.758
458.6475.338
468.3194.890
477.9704.503
487.6474.030
497.2973.695
506.9733.356
516.7123.068
526.4322.800
536.1782.509
545.9672.253
555.6952.016
565.3991.756
575.1281.615
584.8641.483
594.6181.348
604.3291.187
614.1411.042
623.9690.946
633.8320.863
643.6360.769
653.4340.702
663.2580.639
673.0220.584
682.8410.518
692.7190.457
702.5340.416
712.3660.366
722.2530.329
732.1260.289
741.9710.257
751.8720.225
761.7430.198
771.6140.172
781.5210.150
791.4190.131
801.3050.109
811.2130.090
821.1140.075
831.0070.059
840.9020.047
850.8060.038
860.7310.027
870.6490.018
880.5680.011
890.4850.004
900.4150.000
910.3480.000
920.2790.000
930.2030.000
940.1560.000
950.1120.000
960.0630.000
970.0210.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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