Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb0.3640.0190.0000.0000.8650.162
Feb-Mar2.7090.0190.0000.0008.57355.634
Feb-Apr3.2820.0190.0000.0008.75656.833

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.144
201.166
300.495
400.216
500.099
600.037
700.008
800.000
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.734
225.619
319.791
415.538
512.665
69.444
77.575
86.105
94.901
104.144
113.598
123.076
132.723
142.405
152.097
161.881
171.650
181.443
191.281
201.166
211.064
220.955
230.890
240.798
250.746
260.703
270.640
280.594
290.546
300.495
310.454
320.413
330.383
340.358
350.322
360.297
370.273
380.252
390.236
400.216
410.198
420.185
430.175
440.162
450.151
460.139
470.129
480.117
490.108
500.099
510.091
520.084
530.076
540.069
550.062
560.055
570.050
580.046
590.042
600.037
610.032
620.029
630.026
640.022
650.020
660.018
670.015
680.013
690.010
700.008
710.006
720.005
730.003
740.001
750.000
760.000
770.000
780.000
790.000
800.000
810.000
820.000
830.000
840.000
850.000
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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