Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Historical and exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May1.2220.0000.0000.0000.19431.887
May-Jun3.6780.6770.0000.0000.40179.526
May-Jul8.4651.5130.5360.0001.200139.757

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.572
207.508
303.445
401.639
500.839
600.390
700.175
800.051
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1147.814
2101.276
383.464
469.601
559.545
647.272
739.500
832.965
927.300
1023.572
1120.808
1218.090
1316.219
1414.498
1512.808
1611.606
1710.303
189.114
198.180
207.508
216.903
226.257
235.871
245.313
254.996
264.734
274.346
284.060
293.763
303.445
313.181
322.922
332.735
342.568
352.338
362.175
372.016
381.881
391.772
401.639
411.518
421.434
431.364
441.276
451.200
461.117
471.049
480.963
490.901
500.839
510.785
520.735
530.676
540.627
550.575
560.522
570.491
580.461
590.430
600.390
610.355
620.331
630.309
640.283
650.264
660.246
670.229
680.209
690.189
700.175
710.157
720.144
730.129
740.117
750.104
760.092
770.081
780.071
790.062
800.051
810.041
820.032
830.023
840.016
850.010
860.003
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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