Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10210.354221.429
20184.769184.515
30166.991160.391
40150.775137.983
50136.821118.729
60123.45298.636
70108.88280.659
8092.48661.924
9072.18640.667

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1271.028314.818
2255.019285.105
3246.071273.432
4239.212263.818
5231.151256.682
6225.669246.724
7221.216239.690
8217.197233.082
9213.590226.447
10210.354221.429
11206.852217.238
12203.484212.579
13201.100209.019
14199.001205.427
15196.434201.447
16193.568198.262
17191.439194.513
18189.165190.658
19186.676187.234
20184.769184.515
21182.756181.867
22181.145178.898
23179.289176.806
24177.327173.733
25175.426171.793
26173.304170.113
27171.808167.538
28169.902165.478
29168.699163.067
30166.991160.391
31165.274157.922
32163.711155.393
33161.828153.381
34160.059151.383
35158.859148.619
36157.546146.390
37155.951144.146
38154.246142.038
39152.360140.294
40150.775137.983
41149.421135.730
42147.828134.048
43146.397132.622
44145.061130.652
45143.862128.867
46142.394126.854
47140.806125.014
48139.378122.592
49138.170120.743
50136.821118.729
51135.269116.887
52133.898115.030
53132.678112.840
54131.685110.728
55130.303108.567
56128.856105.922
57127.452104.347
58126.150102.745
59125.025100.976
60123.45298.636
61122.13296.281
62120.74194.550
63119.49092.923
64118.06790.912
65116.60989.338
66115.06987.720
67113.32886.202
68111.80184.209
69110.56182.149
70108.88280.659
71106.97478.609
72105.62676.958
73104.15575.010
74102.78973.261
75100.83771.313
7699.34269.564
7797.76267.650
7895.75365.875
7994.19264.169
8092.48661.924
8190.78359.806
8288.69957.785
8386.71155.485
8484.76753.553
8582.96051.877
8681.35549.618
8779.31147.287
8877.45845.411
8974.70443.162
9072.18640.667
9170.07938.345
9267.14735.618
9364.17032.732
9461.03329.253
9557.74526.789
9654.12723.989
9749.15919.986
9842.92116.627
9936.23912.839


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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