Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10144.583196.521
20124.341162.691
30110.067140.629
4098.795120.205
5089.485102.746
6080.87084.674
7072.43768.695
8062.32952.303
9051.16334.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1208.138282.221
2188.543254.948
3179.116244.235
4171.950235.412
5165.992228.863
6160.342219.725
7155.298213.272
8151.478207.210
9148.107201.124
10144.583196.521
11141.693192.678
12139.779188.407
13137.413185.143
14134.916181.850
15132.544178.202
16131.291175.283
17129.498171.848
18127.939168.317
19126.135165.181
20124.341162.691
21122.762160.268
22121.043157.550
23119.551155.635
24118.058152.825
25116.649151.050
26115.204149.514
27113.714147.160
28112.530145.277
29111.524143.074
30110.067140.629
31108.994138.375
32107.777136.067
33106.409134.231
34105.414132.409
35104.308129.888
36103.345127.857
37101.984125.813
38100.647123.894
3999.716122.306
4098.795120.205
4197.697118.156
4296.885116.628
4395.891115.333
4494.950113.545
4593.949111.925
4692.842110.100
4792.048108.432
4891.198106.239
4990.383104.567
5089.485102.746
5188.563101.082
5287.57899.406
5386.61697.431
5485.46595.528
5584.54993.583
5683.83691.206
5783.04689.791
5882.22488.354
5981.52786.769
6080.87084.674
6180.00082.569
6279.14481.024
6378.27279.573
6477.47477.783
6576.69476.383
6675.76974.946
6775.01873.599
6874.38371.834
6973.53670.012
7072.43768.695
7171.30466.887
7270.27765.434
7369.30363.722
7468.29962.188
7567.43060.481
7666.58058.952
7765.30057.281
7864.30955.735
7963.27454.251
8062.32952.303
8161.37150.470
8260.54448.724
8359.30946.740
8458.13445.080
8557.20143.641
8656.13641.706
8754.91139.714
8853.94038.115
8952.62736.202
9051.16334.085
9150.03632.120
9248.33429.816
9346.60127.385
9444.56524.462
9542.29922.397
9640.16720.054
9737.78016.710
9833.77113.909
9929.44510.752


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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