Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.93853.136
2026.77038.547
3023.47731.187
4020.45725.560
5018.28021.455
6016.22117.739
7014.22114.819
8011.97712.013
909.4548.946

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.873118.936
246.26092.187
342.15483.314
439.40176.718
537.85571.998
636.28966.147
734.93462.262
833.83758.778
932.83755.495
1031.93853.136
1131.32151.245
1230.64649.230
1329.95847.730
1429.43746.247
1528.99844.672
1628.51343.464
1728.08542.054
1827.68040.656
1927.21339.465
2026.77038.547
2126.37737.670
2226.04236.672
2325.61436.040
2425.24835.074
2524.88134.491
2624.63033.989
2724.27433.211
2824.01532.604
2923.76331.940
3023.47731.187
3123.08330.522
3222.75529.830
3322.44629.304
3422.09928.813
3521.85728.098
3621.50627.558
3721.14927.008
3820.86726.511
3920.65226.095
4020.45725.560
4120.23625.045
4220.02324.674
4319.78824.352
4419.56423.926
4519.36223.544
4619.11123.109
4718.92322.735
4818.69122.236
4918.48121.855
5018.28021.455
5118.04421.094
5217.86820.741
5317.67320.309
5417.43319.925
5517.23319.502
5617.01919.037
5716.79018.753
5816.53818.463
5916.36718.158
6016.22117.739
6116.03517.346
6215.81317.057
6315.61116.782
6415.41016.457
6515.24616.200
6615.00615.937
6714.80615.693
6814.62915.376
6914.40615.052
7014.22114.819
7114.02614.502
7213.81114.248
7313.58413.952
7413.37113.687
7513.16913.395
7612.94513.135
7712.72312.851
7812.50912.590
7912.23912.340
8011.97712.013
8111.76511.706
8211.50811.415
8311.31611.083
8411.07310.806
8510.80010.565
8610.55510.240
8710.2349.905
889.9739.635
899.6759.309
909.4548.946
919.0838.606
928.7528.201
938.2647.766
947.8447.231
957.3356.842
966.7766.387
976.1145.707
985.3635.101
994.4984.362


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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