Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1051.12464.862
2040.80647.489
3034.27738.673
4029.45731.876
5025.54926.898
6022.35322.377
7018.94918.775
8015.78015.315
9011.64911.505

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.170142.189
277.573110.792
370.584100.444
465.84592.649
562.45487.256
659.62880.248
757.42175.639
854.87071.548
952.75267.662
1051.12464.862
1149.57762.612
1248.29760.200
1347.02858.420
1446.20656.676
1545.19154.803
1644.22253.348
1743.12851.684
1842.28950.026
1941.55548.596
2040.80647.489
2139.94746.435
2239.07945.279
2338.27544.482
2437.58743.335
2537.00142.625
2636.45942.020
2735.96941.108
2835.34540.392
2934.86839.568
3034.27738.673
3133.81037.864
3233.29437.051
3332.78736.416
3432.30735.796
3531.89034.953
3631.32134.287
3730.87433.628
3830.45433.019
3929.98332.523
4029.45731.876
4128.99531.256
4228.69330.800
4328.34230.418
4427.93929.896
4527.55929.431
4627.14328.913
4726.75428.446
4826.36927.841
4925.94027.387
5025.54926.898
5125.21326.458
5224.99426.019
5324.66825.509
5424.32825.025
5523.97924.536
5623.67423.948
5723.32023.602
5823.03223.254
5922.67422.874
6022.35322.377
6122.08021.885
6221.70221.527
6321.36921.194
6421.07620.786
6520.76420.471
6620.31720.149
6719.91519.849
6819.61819.460
6919.33119.061
7018.94918.775
7118.60818.385
7218.31118.073
7318.03317.708
7417.73217.382
7517.43717.022
7617.14416.701
7716.77516.351
7816.43616.029
7916.14015.720
8015.78015.315
8115.33414.936
8214.91614.574
8314.47014.163
8414.08813.819
8513.72713.520
8613.24313.117
8712.85512.700
8812.46412.364
8912.06611.958
9011.64911.505
9111.17111.080
9210.76710.574
9310.16510.030
949.6019.358
958.8718.868
968.2798.296
977.4017.437
986.4006.669
994.8375.729


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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