Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10150.176194.006
20124.045146.645
30107.202120.684
4093.53999.849
5082.38084.186
6072.21669.706
7062.00158.026
8051.70646.712
9039.88834.176

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.390351.201
2204.299296.344
3191.902275.865
4183.816259.525
5177.079247.726
6169.805231.759
7162.689220.847
8158.051210.882
9153.762201.163
10150.176194.006
11146.953188.160
12143.988181.800
13140.966177.041
14138.014172.327
15135.676167.207
16133.465163.190
17131.022158.549
18128.845153.879
19126.340149.816
20124.045146.645
21122.357143.608
22120.666140.256
23118.830137.931
24117.212134.569
25115.243132.478
26113.679130.687
27111.837127.978
28110.436125.842
29108.767123.377
30107.202120.684
31105.706118.239
32104.176115.775
33102.836113.842
34101.562111.947
35100.216109.366
3698.839107.316
3797.409105.284
3896.333103.400
3994.891101.861
4093.53999.849
4192.40497.915
4291.18496.489
4390.11795.293
4488.94693.658
4587.88992.193
4686.61790.562
4785.49389.090
4884.31587.177
4983.31385.737
5082.38084.186
5181.43382.785
5280.42381.388
5379.36879.762
5478.22578.213
5577.31576.649
5676.36574.761
5775.31273.650
5874.18772.531
5973.24771.307
6072.21669.706
6170.99768.116
6270.08766.959
6369.14865.881
6468.10964.562
6567.16363.538
6666.04662.494
6765.05761.521
6863.91960.255
6963.13858.958
7062.00158.026
7160.77756.754
7259.82655.736
7358.99654.544
7458.16853.481
7557.20652.303
7655.95151.252
7754.69750.107
7853.80449.050
7952.67448.038
8051.70646.712
8150.77545.464
8249.72744.277
8348.60942.928
8447.22441.795
8546.19040.812
8645.01239.486
8743.73738.113
8842.29237.005
8940.95335.669
9039.88834.176
9138.28532.773
9236.36331.105
9334.70429.309
9432.86227.091
9530.41025.476
9628.11123.586
9725.54120.753
9822.95018.220
9918.63615.122


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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