Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10168.472196.521
20145.205162.691
30129.445140.629
40116.798120.205
50105.932102.746
6096.35084.674
7086.15968.695
8075.34852.303
9061.89234.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1239.444282.221
2216.396254.948
3206.523244.235
4198.401235.412
5192.003228.863
6184.815219.725
7179.380213.272
8175.213207.210
9171.969201.124
10168.472196.521
11165.679192.678
12162.028188.407
13159.756185.143
14157.200181.850
15154.700178.202
16152.464175.283
17150.672171.848
18149.205168.317
19147.521165.181
20145.205162.691
21143.720160.268
22142.076157.550
23140.299155.635
24138.649152.825
25136.880151.050
26135.008149.514
27133.605147.160
28131.982145.277
29130.706143.074
30129.445140.629
31128.099138.375
32126.628136.067
33125.527134.231
34124.254132.409
35123.094129.888
36121.996127.857
37120.588125.813
38119.194123.894
39118.085122.306
40116.798120.205
41115.390118.156
42114.222116.628
43113.283115.333
44112.232113.545
45111.281111.925
46110.124110.100
47109.118108.432
48107.945106.239
49106.804104.567
50105.932102.746
51105.016101.082
52103.94299.406
53103.02597.431
54101.92595.528
55101.03193.583
56100.14491.206
5799.25689.791
5898.34388.354
5997.25586.769
6096.35084.674
6195.11882.569
6294.13281.024
6393.32979.573
6492.22377.783
6591.39576.383
6690.41074.946
6789.07973.599
6888.11371.834
6987.23570.012
7086.15968.695
7185.23366.887
7284.30765.434
7383.25163.722
7481.93962.188
7580.61860.481
7679.60858.952
7778.35057.281
7877.39755.735
7976.43554.251
8075.34852.303
8173.84850.470
8272.51848.724
8371.39646.740
8470.15645.080
8568.80443.641
8667.53841.706
8766.09439.714
8865.02138.115
8963.46636.202
9061.89234.085
9160.42632.120
9258.60429.816
9356.36527.385
9454.19524.462
9551.70322.397
9649.31020.054
9746.22516.710
9842.04413.909
9936.46410.752


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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