Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


  • Jan

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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.67656.413
2022.70043.032
3020.17735.771
4018.04729.923
5016.24125.483
6014.72921.320
7013.29217.900
8011.62014.514
909.44710.644

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
139.999104.606
235.89486.959
333.34580.613
431.66075.640
530.59772.097
629.73667.362
728.80864.164
827.92061.268
927.30758.465
1026.67656.413
1126.08754.743
1225.62952.934
1325.26451.585
1424.71650.251
1524.38348.807
1623.97947.675
1723.63446.371
1823.29045.060
1923.00943.920
2022.70043.032
2122.46742.182
2222.17541.244
2321.87940.594
2421.61939.654
2521.35839.069
2621.09438.569
2720.86237.811
2820.65237.214
2920.37736.524
3020.17735.771
3119.99235.087
3219.77034.397
3319.53433.855
3419.34733.324
3519.11532.600
3618.90132.024
3718.69231.453
3818.50830.923
3918.25430.490
4018.04729.923
4117.85329.377
4217.67528.975
4317.49228.637
4417.25928.174
4517.08427.759
4616.91527.297
4716.74026.879
4816.54226.335
4916.39225.925
5016.24125.483
5116.07325.083
5215.92824.684
5315.79424.218
5415.65223.774
5515.50423.325
5615.32922.781
5715.12922.461
5814.99222.138
5914.87021.784
6014.72921.320
6114.60120.858
6214.46420.521
6314.30520.207
6414.16419.822
6514.02319.522
6613.88719.216
6713.71018.930
6813.55918.558
6913.42018.175
7013.29217.900
7113.17617.523
7213.04817.221
7312.84416.867
7412.69016.550
7512.52616.198
7612.33615.883
7712.16815.539
7812.01115.221
7911.82514.915
8011.62014.514
8111.44614.135
8211.27213.773
8311.02513.361
8410.87113.013
8510.71012.711
8610.45312.301
8710.21211.876
8810.00011.530
899.69711.113
909.44710.644
919.24310.201
928.9979.671
938.6889.097
948.3448.381
957.9917.856
967.6557.235
977.1036.293
986.4535.438
995.4844.372


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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