Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10153.266139.408
20123.947101.526
30105.07982.388
4089.71167.683
5077.47556.948
6066.98747.227
7057.18839.506
8045.90832.114
9033.74424.007

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1243.945309.710
2217.318240.307
3204.969217.501
4191.397200.347
5180.889188.492
6173.277173.106
7167.552162.998
8162.638154.037
9157.293145.531
10153.266139.408
11149.791134.491
12145.969129.225
13142.602125.338
14138.406121.533
15135.493117.449
16133.209114.279
17130.768110.654
18128.755107.044
19126.376103.934
20123.947101.526
21121.46199.234
22119.25596.722
23117.23394.990
24115.74492.500
25114.03890.959
26112.11789.645
27110.60187.666
28108.74786.113
29106.91484.328
30105.07982.388
31103.24680.635
32101.71778.875
3399.69377.500
3498.42876.158
3596.98274.335
3695.50572.894
3794.04571.470
3892.63070.154
3991.36869.081
4089.71167.683
4188.89666.344
4287.73465.360
4386.08464.535
4485.01563.410
4583.73362.405
4682.49361.289
4781.21660.283
4880.10758.979
4978.77958.000
5077.47556.948
5176.36455.999
5275.37355.056
5373.96153.959
5472.98952.916
5571.93851.865
5670.57350.600
5769.72149.857
5868.66749.110
5967.73448.293
6066.98747.227
6165.68746.170
6264.81445.402
6363.96244.688
6463.01043.814
6561.97743.137
6661.05942.448
6760.03841.806
6859.02040.972
6958.07340.119
7057.18839.506
7156.07238.671
7255.00338.004
7353.92937.223
7452.97736.527
7551.56235.757
7650.51635.071
7749.28534.324
7847.99133.636
7946.88032.977
8045.90832.114
8144.82931.304
8243.62530.533
8342.73429.658
8441.55428.925
8540.35428.289
8638.94927.431
8737.75826.545
8836.30425.830
8934.86224.968
9033.74424.007
9132.65123.105
9231.18122.032
9329.63420.879
9428.11719.457
9526.29418.423
9624.16317.213
9721.40415.403
9818.71113.787
9915.17411.813


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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