Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10159.420194.006
20132.549146.645
30114.944120.684
40100.71099.849
5088.80984.186
6078.02069.706
7067.21158.026
8056.20246.712
9043.47134.176

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1237.179351.201
2215.790296.344
3202.079275.865
4193.969259.525
5186.913247.726
6179.452231.759
7172.855220.847
8167.305210.882
9163.535201.163
10159.420194.006
11156.352188.160
12153.089181.800
13149.774177.041
14146.839172.327
15144.685167.207
16142.411163.190
17139.641158.549
18137.485153.879
19135.191149.816
20132.549146.645
21130.821143.608
22128.899140.256
23126.966137.931
24125.485134.569
25123.365132.478
26121.674130.687
27119.979127.978
28118.213125.842
29116.594123.377
30114.944120.684
31113.479118.239
32111.858115.775
33110.320113.842
34109.109111.947
35107.609109.366
36106.151107.316
37104.714105.284
38103.352103.400
39102.002101.861
40100.71099.849
4199.26297.915
4298.06896.489
4396.89395.293
4495.80193.658
4594.75392.193
4693.36590.562
4792.15589.090
4890.82787.177
4989.91285.737
5088.80984.186
5187.71382.785
5286.68981.388
5385.59879.762
5484.50478.213
5583.57376.649
5682.42974.761
5781.34073.650
5880.04772.531
5979.18671.307
6078.02069.706
6176.72768.116
6275.84966.959
6374.81065.881
6473.75964.562
6572.63963.538
6671.51962.494
6770.29561.521
6869.23960.255
6968.20158.958
7067.21158.026
7165.98156.754
7265.05655.736
7364.01654.544
7463.13353.481
7562.06652.303
7660.84551.252
7759.41250.107
7858.41349.050
7957.26748.038
8056.20246.712
8155.14545.464
8253.99044.277
8352.84142.928
8451.49341.795
8550.18840.812
8648.96339.486
8747.65138.113
8846.30737.005
8944.77135.669
9043.47134.176
9141.52532.773
9239.87631.105
9337.95429.309
9436.06927.091
9533.56725.476
9630.88523.586
9728.02920.753
9825.26618.220
9920.86315.122


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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