Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10248.435217.587
20214.947178.209
30191.700153.001
40174.227130.183
50156.361111.204
60141.15292.162
70126.27375.838
80108.61059.470
9087.43341.299

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1347.379318.936
2318.362286.566
3303.149273.871
4289.832263.426
5280.296255.682
6270.345244.890
7263.011237.280
8256.897230.143
9253.108222.989
10248.435217.587
11243.829213.083
12240.201208.084
13236.069204.271
14233.457200.429
15230.638196.180
16227.173192.786
17224.402188.799
18221.462184.708
19217.658181.083
20214.947178.209
21212.624175.418
22209.697172.293
23207.186170.096
24205.093166.876
25203.165164.847
26200.807163.094
27198.363160.411
28196.261158.270
29193.970155.769
30191.700153.001
31189.893150.455
32188.107147.854
33186.383145.790
34184.833143.747
35183.110140.928
36180.798138.662
37179.152136.389
38177.594134.260
39176.093132.503
40174.227130.183
41172.556127.929
42170.303126.252
43168.602124.834
44166.837122.880
45165.001121.115
46163.218119.132
47161.047117.326
48159.359114.958
49157.831113.158
50156.361111.204
51154.765109.425
52153.525107.637
53151.934105.538
54150.008103.522
55148.439101.469
56146.89698.971
57145.69097.489
58144.27595.988
59142.63394.336
60141.15292.162
61139.85289.985
62138.68588.392
63137.21886.901
64135.58385.066
65134.05283.636
66132.53282.171
67131.08080.800
68129.67879.010
69128.01177.167
70126.27375.838
71124.61874.018
72123.29772.558
73121.67570.843
74120.01969.307
75118.38067.603
76116.74166.079
77114.81864.416
78112.91562.878
79110.58561.404
80108.61059.470
81107.43357.651
82105.19955.919
83103.59853.951
84101.76252.302
85100.04750.872
8697.96148.945
8795.82246.957
8892.57645.357
8990.17043.435
9087.43341.299
9184.77139.304
9282.09736.950
9378.90234.440
9475.96631.384
9571.65729.193
9667.42126.669
9761.73022.980
9856.96219.791
9948.52016.053


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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