Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1064.73556.413
2055.96943.032
3050.56735.771
4046.05529.923
5042.10525.483
6038.70421.320
7035.32917.900
8031.38314.514
9026.55510.644

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
191.553104.606
282.71286.959
378.03080.613
474.72375.640
572.56972.097
670.75267.362
768.70764.164
867.34761.268
966.25958.465
1064.73556.413
1163.76054.743
1262.67452.934
1361.71851.585
1460.64450.251
1559.66848.807
1658.75447.675
1758.09646.371
1857.42645.060
1956.75243.920
2055.96943.032
2155.42842.182
2254.87041.244
2354.30940.594
2453.76339.654
2553.21939.069
2652.55438.569
2752.07737.811
2851.67037.214
2951.13936.524
3050.56735.771
3150.06235.087
3249.63234.397
3349.19233.855
3448.65933.324
3548.23032.600
3647.75532.024
3747.28031.453
3846.85930.923
3946.46330.490
4046.05529.923
4145.70629.377
4245.25228.975
4344.91528.637
4444.44028.174
4543.98827.759
4643.63227.297
4743.19226.879
4842.82626.335
4942.45825.925
5042.10525.483
5141.78325.083
5241.34724.684
5341.04124.218
5440.69323.774
5540.36023.325
5640.07522.781
5739.74622.461
5839.44822.138
5939.03921.784
6038.70421.320
6138.27420.858
6237.96420.521
6337.55020.207
6437.22219.822
6536.84819.522
6636.59619.216
6736.28718.930
6835.99418.558
6935.64518.175
7035.32917.900
7134.96017.523
7234.59217.221
7334.26316.867
7433.90416.550
7533.59116.198
7633.03215.883
7732.71415.539
7832.38515.221
7931.96414.915
8031.38314.514
8130.94714.135
8230.53313.773
8330.11613.361
8429.68913.013
8529.29312.711
8628.71812.301
8728.30811.876
8827.74111.530
8927.26311.113
9026.55510.644
9125.92710.201
9225.1159.671
9324.5109.097
9423.9458.381
9523.2737.856
9622.2747.235
9720.9466.293
9819.6155.438
9917.1704.372


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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