Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile35.72046.014
Median47.74479.854
Mean50.81285.822
75% Quartile62.713118.490
Interquartile Range26.99372.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1116.041223.056
2103.550201.329
397.089192.794
491.727185.764
588.507180.546
686.071173.264
783.632168.120
881.499163.289
979.421158.437
1077.958154.768
1176.336151.704
1275.116148.298
1373.943145.695
1472.733143.069
1571.510140.160
1670.392137.832
1769.339135.091
1868.627132.274
1967.784129.772
2066.970127.784
2166.023125.850
2265.136123.680
2364.217122.152
2463.523119.908
2562.715118.491
2662.070117.264
2761.211115.384
2860.557113.880
2959.862112.120
3059.020110.167
3158.494108.365
3257.886106.520
3357.269105.052
3456.523103.596
3555.998101.580
3655.48099.956
3754.93498.321
3854.34796.786
3953.73295.516
4053.09693.834
4152.39992.194
4251.88290.971
4351.41389.935
4450.79788.503
4550.27087.206
4649.83585.744
4749.29784.409
4848.79282.652
4948.31981.312
5047.74479.854
5147.20878.520
5246.86777.177
5346.32175.594
5445.85174.069
5545.41572.510
5645.02770.605
5744.54469.471
5843.99368.319
5943.60767.048
6043.23665.370
6142.59063.683
6242.09962.444
6341.62361.282
6441.09559.848
6540.50358.726
6640.04257.576
6739.52656.497
6839.09855.084
6938.65653.626
7038.16252.573
7137.68451.127
7237.21149.966
7336.71948.599
7436.26147.374
7535.71546.012
7635.20744.793
7734.69943.463
7834.14442.232
7933.64341.052
8033.14639.504
8132.65338.050
8232.06136.667
8331.53935.098
8430.87233.787
8530.31932.652
8629.74931.129
8728.94729.565
8828.26428.312
8927.59626.817
9026.77825.166
9126.04923.640
9225.37621.857
9324.44819.983
9423.34017.743
9522.44316.169
9621.44214.393
9719.87811.879
9818.3539.795
9915.5567.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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