Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


Return to catchment list
Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile26.59723.783
Median40.18037.262
Mean46.75146.962
75% Quartile59.50558.544
Interquartile Range32.90834.762

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.700190.978
2126.942149.495
3114.718135.780
4106.663125.430
5100.483118.260
695.470108.932
791.848102.787
888.81597.329
986.19292.138
1082.86588.394
1180.56485.384
1277.88082.155
1375.92379.770
1473.88177.432
1572.14074.920
1670.26772.968
1768.87670.733
1867.63068.505
1966.26966.583
2065.13465.094
2163.76063.676
2262.53162.120
2361.47861.046
2460.35059.501
2559.50758.545
2658.48257.729
2757.64656.499
2856.67455.532
2955.77554.421
3054.95353.213
3154.04152.120
3253.16951.022
3352.27150.164
3451.36449.325
3550.48548.185
3649.63447.284
3748.99946.392
3848.34545.567
3947.56644.895
4046.91644.018
4146.31943.177
4245.53642.559
4344.74242.041
4444.15641.334
4543.49940.701
4642.83739.999
4742.09339.365
4841.53738.543
4940.82237.926
5040.18037.262
5139.68436.663
5238.96236.066
5338.35135.373
5437.82634.713
5537.34534.048
5636.84833.246
5736.34932.775
5835.63332.300
5935.10231.782
6034.63731.105
6134.09530.433
6233.52829.944
6332.98429.489
6432.49528.933
6531.86628.502
6631.29228.062
6730.86527.653
6830.31827.120
6929.73926.575
7029.30526.183
7128.73025.649
7228.19625.222
7327.68924.722
7427.15924.276
7526.59223.782
7626.09123.341
7725.56322.861
7825.18622.419
7924.64921.995
8024.11421.439
8123.57420.917
8223.13920.420
8322.53219.855
8421.82519.381
8521.24418.970
8620.51318.415
8720.02417.840
8819.34217.376
8918.74516.817
9018.03716.191
9117.25015.604
9216.32714.904
9315.66514.151
9414.75513.219
9513.75012.541
9612.69811.745
9711.26310.551
9810.2419.481
997.8678.168


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence