Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.28935.759
Median60.53556.948
Mean69.78473.002
75% Quartile90.95490.958
Interquartile Range51.66555.200

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1208.498309.710
2184.013240.307
3171.895217.501
4159.787200.347
5150.612188.492
6144.193173.106
7138.336162.998
8134.024154.037
9129.265145.531
10125.268139.408
11122.235134.491
12119.071129.225
13115.567125.338
14112.492121.533
15109.631117.449
16107.603114.279
17105.271110.654
18103.389107.044
19101.278103.934
2099.033101.526
2196.92799.234
2295.24096.722
2393.83894.990
2492.50392.500
2590.96990.959
2689.42989.645
2788.03287.666
2886.44086.113
2984.74384.328
3083.00782.388
3181.63380.635
3280.21778.875
3379.06077.500
3477.92176.158
3576.66974.335
3675.32772.894
3774.24071.470
3872.95370.154
3971.63369.081
4070.51967.683
4169.33766.344
4268.49665.360
4367.32564.535
4466.11263.410
4565.14462.405
4664.07561.289
4763.26260.283
4862.23758.979
4961.36958.000
5060.53556.948
5159.56055.999
5258.38255.056
5357.29053.959
5456.49852.916
5555.61851.865
5654.93650.600
5754.03749.857
5853.23249.110
5952.50948.293
6051.74747.227
6151.04946.170
6250.10745.402
6349.25444.688
6448.52043.814
6547.63143.137
6646.94242.448
6746.27241.806
6845.44840.972
6944.59340.119
7043.81439.506
7142.91738.671
7241.98638.004
7341.19637.223
7440.22736.527
7539.28435.757
7638.52935.071
7737.62034.324
7836.58333.636
7935.61332.977
8034.87932.114
8134.03531.304
8233.11630.533
8332.14029.658
8431.36328.925
8530.59928.289
8629.40027.431
8728.49326.545
8827.37125.830
8926.21724.968
9025.34324.007
9124.28523.105
9223.19522.032
9322.29320.879
9421.10319.457
9519.43018.423
9617.79017.213
9715.69115.403
9813.67413.787
9910.80111.813


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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