Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile82.48367.606
Median112.371111.204
Mean120.383121.752
75% Quartile150.848164.846
Interquartile Range68.36597.240

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1281.523318.936
2252.167286.566
3238.774273.871
4228.897263.426
5217.755255.682
6209.710244.890
7203.079237.280
8198.376230.143
9193.850222.989
10190.566217.587
11186.891213.083
12183.658208.084
13180.793204.271
14177.172200.429
15174.553196.180
16171.975192.786
17169.527188.799
18166.432184.708
19163.913181.083
20161.543178.209
21158.862175.418
22155.977172.293
23154.254170.096
24152.454166.876
25150.860164.847
26148.885163.094
27146.881160.411
28145.276158.270
29143.357155.769
30141.655153.001
31139.983150.455
32138.538147.854
33136.954145.790
34135.346143.747
35133.887140.928
36132.554138.662
37130.964136.389
38129.821134.260
39128.056132.503
40126.868130.183
41125.299127.929
42123.793126.252
43122.324124.834
44120.955122.880
45119.440121.115
46117.833119.132
47116.505117.326
48115.050114.958
49113.700113.158
50112.371111.204
51111.147109.425
52109.678107.637
53108.451105.538
54107.338103.522
55106.059101.469
56104.89198.971
57103.28097.489
58102.23395.988
59101.14794.336
60100.29592.162
6198.96189.985
6297.73088.392
6396.82686.901
6495.80285.066
6594.64883.636
6693.63582.171
6792.29480.800
6891.07479.010
6989.66177.167
7088.29875.838
7186.79574.018
7285.80572.558
7384.78770.843
7483.70969.307
7582.48167.603
7681.14466.079
7779.27664.416
7877.94962.878
7976.22561.404
8074.90859.470
8173.64257.651
8272.35255.919
8371.08853.951
8469.82652.302
8568.39450.872
8666.54948.945
8764.56246.957
8862.61345.357
8960.80243.435
9059.14741.299
9157.33139.304
9255.08236.950
9352.55434.440
9450.17731.384
9547.55429.193
9644.82126.669
9740.39922.980
9836.37819.791
9930.74916.053


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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