Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile100.58371.316
Median136.588118.729
Mean139.816126.066
75% Quartile175.938171.792
Interquartile Range75.355100.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1272.591314.818
2256.051285.105
3246.883273.432
4239.749263.818
5232.059256.682
6226.510246.724
7221.728239.690
8217.259233.082
9213.482226.447
10210.782221.429
11207.706217.238
12205.218212.579
13202.034209.019
14199.498205.427
15196.571201.447
16194.304198.262
17191.475194.513
18188.773190.658
19186.350187.234
20184.222184.515
21182.403181.867
22180.701178.898
23179.127176.806
24177.488173.733
25175.951171.793
26174.207170.113
27172.623167.538
28170.635165.478
29169.139163.067
30167.408160.391
31165.008157.922
32163.708155.393
33162.112153.381
34160.346151.383
35158.823148.619
36156.903146.390
37155.347144.146
38153.606142.038
39151.940140.294
40150.289137.983
41149.055135.730
42147.456134.048
43146.133132.622
44144.650130.652
45143.259128.867
46141.701126.854
47140.353125.014
48138.964122.592
49137.901120.743
50136.588118.729
51135.327116.887
52134.092115.030
53132.655112.840
54131.035110.728
55129.952108.567
56128.426105.922
57127.053104.347
58125.636102.745
59124.441100.976
60123.01798.636
61121.41096.281
62120.21894.550
63118.80292.923
64117.35190.912
65116.15689.338
66114.47687.720
67113.08586.202
68111.75184.209
69110.42882.149
70108.72680.659
71106.96878.609
72105.37276.958
73103.75475.010
74102.21773.261
75100.56471.313
7699.22269.564
7797.65167.650
7896.46865.875
7994.85164.169
8092.60761.924
8190.72859.806
8289.03657.785
8387.47255.485
8485.32753.553
8583.24451.877
8680.61249.618
8778.83347.287
8876.72545.411
8974.63743.162
9071.93640.667
9169.91838.345
9267.29935.618
9364.35232.732
9461.09329.253
9557.89126.789
9654.32523.989
9749.53019.986
9842.21316.627
9933.59212.839


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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