Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile56.70246.014
Median73.52679.854
Mean76.83285.822
75% Quartile93.766118.490
Interquartile Range37.06472.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1158.593223.056
2144.014201.329
3135.925192.794
4130.611185.764
5127.158180.546
6123.332173.264
7120.470168.120
8117.951163.289
9115.840158.437
10113.379154.768
11111.461151.704
12109.394148.298
13107.974145.695
14106.678143.069
15105.054140.160
16104.209137.832
17102.595135.091
18101.355132.274
19100.383129.772
2099.228127.784
2198.202125.850
2296.782123.680
2395.519122.152
2494.610119.908
2593.800118.491
2692.645117.264
2791.720115.384
2890.783113.880
2989.799112.120
3089.028110.167
3187.965108.365
3287.034106.520
3386.091105.052
3485.345103.596
3584.554101.580
3683.82699.956
3783.05898.321
3882.34996.786
3981.55195.516
4080.64193.834
4179.78692.194
4278.88690.971
4378.11889.935
4477.35288.503
4576.86687.206
4676.21085.744
4775.43684.409
4874.83882.652
4974.32681.312
5073.52679.854
5172.73678.520
5272.05777.177
5371.38575.594
5470.76374.069
5570.13972.510
5669.59870.605
5768.87669.471
5868.18268.319
5967.59067.048
6067.02465.370
6166.34763.683
6265.53862.444
6364.81261.282
6464.12859.848
6563.45158.726
6662.96357.576
6762.10756.497
6861.50355.084
6960.83953.626
7060.06652.573
7159.42751.127
7258.64249.966
7357.97748.599
7457.37747.374
7556.68946.012
7656.06344.793
7755.31643.463
7854.67242.232
7953.99441.052
8053.18239.504
8152.23438.050
8251.30636.667
8350.57435.098
8449.84933.787
8549.05432.652
8648.23931.129
8746.98229.565
8845.62428.312
8944.65226.817
9043.75125.166
9142.70323.640
9241.63521.857
9340.27819.983
9438.85017.743
9537.31216.169
9635.41314.393
9733.15611.879
9831.0509.795
9927.8157.473


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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