Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.71413.396
Median15.16321.455
Mean16.61727.645
75% Quartile20.88334.484
Interquartile Range10.16921.088

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.142118.936
239.52592.187
336.14983.314
433.86276.718
532.40771.998
631.01466.147
729.76762.262
828.68958.778
927.88555.495
1027.10653.136
1126.54951.245
1225.89849.230
1325.39347.730
1424.93746.247
1524.52144.672
1624.04943.464
1723.71842.054
1823.29040.656
1922.91639.465
2022.59338.547
2122.26737.670
2221.92036.672
2321.53536.040
2421.21635.074
2520.88334.491
2620.64433.989
2720.40933.211
2820.17032.604
2919.94231.940
3019.69031.187
3119.36730.522
3219.04829.830
3318.75129.304
3418.51628.813
3518.24328.098
3617.97727.558
3717.71227.008
3817.46026.511
3917.23126.095
4017.07525.560
4116.88625.045
4216.69024.674
4316.43624.352
4416.26523.926
4516.08423.544
4615.91823.109
4715.74422.735
4815.56722.236
4915.31721.855
5015.16321.455
5114.98421.094
5214.84720.741
5314.64120.309
5414.48719.925
5514.28419.502
5614.05819.037
5713.87518.753
5813.72018.463
5913.53918.158
6013.35117.739
6113.16117.346
6213.01917.057
6312.86816.782
6412.68916.457
6512.51316.200
6612.35815.937
6712.15915.693
6811.96715.376
6911.82615.052
7011.62114.819
7111.42814.502
7211.24314.248
7311.05413.952
7410.90613.687
7510.71113.395
7610.52013.135
7710.34412.851
7810.12012.590
799.93912.340
809.71212.013
819.48411.706
829.31011.415
839.13011.083
848.92510.806
858.67610.565
868.44910.240
878.2039.905
887.9729.635
897.7149.309
907.4878.946
917.1688.606
926.8218.201
936.4497.766
946.1487.231
955.6106.842
965.1376.387
974.5525.707
983.9495.101
993.1424.362


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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