Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile14.99117.023
Median22.21226.898
Mean25.64234.199
75% Quartile32.47642.625
Interquartile Range17.48525.602

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
180.491142.189
268.696110.792
362.344100.444
458.24592.649
554.78387.256
652.55780.248
750.75875.639
848.32971.548
946.48367.662
1044.99664.862
1143.64562.612
1242.57560.200
1341.43858.420
1440.51556.676
1539.70654.803
1638.87053.348
1737.90451.684
1837.15550.026
1936.49248.596
2035.74547.489
2134.99446.435
2234.37745.279
2333.54244.482
2432.91243.335
2532.48442.625
2631.95942.020
2731.48641.108
2830.98540.392
2930.50339.568
3029.97238.673
3129.62837.864
3229.12737.051
3328.69136.416
3428.27835.796
3527.82934.953
3627.36534.287
3726.93033.628
3826.56033.019
3926.09632.523
4025.68431.876
4125.31731.256
4224.94530.800
4324.63230.418
4424.36829.896
4524.04329.431
4623.62028.913
4723.34028.446
4822.92927.841
4922.53627.387
5022.21226.898
5121.93226.458
5221.66026.019
5321.40225.509
5421.10625.025
5520.79324.536
5620.53423.948
5720.19123.602
5819.92723.254
5919.67022.874
6019.38922.377
6119.10721.885
6218.79221.527
6318.53721.194
6418.22720.786
6517.90820.471
6617.54320.149
6717.16719.849
6816.92319.460
6916.68619.061
7016.33118.775
7116.05518.385
7215.78518.073
7315.52417.708
7415.25917.382
7514.99017.022
7614.74416.701
7714.40116.351
7814.11816.029
7913.85015.720
8013.50315.315
8113.10114.936
8212.72914.574
8312.34914.163
8412.03313.819
8511.60413.520
8611.26713.117
8710.95012.700
8810.55112.364
8910.21011.958
909.83711.505
919.42411.080
929.02110.574
938.49410.030
948.0019.358
957.4038.868
966.8548.296
976.0607.437
985.0696.669
993.7935.729


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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