Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.14716.198
Median15.77325.483
Mean16.99030.410
75% Quartile20.73539.069
Interquartile Range8.58822.871

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.850104.606
234.96086.959
332.61080.613
430.80275.640
529.82372.097
628.91267.362
728.02064.164
827.22261.268
926.55458.465
1025.95556.413
1125.37454.743
1224.98152.934
1324.55851.585
1424.04750.251
1523.71048.807
1623.36847.675
1722.99646.371
1822.66745.060
1922.37343.920
2022.07543.032
2121.82342.182
2221.55941.244
2321.29640.594
2421.03239.654
2520.73939.069
2620.50638.569
2720.30237.811
2820.08637.214
2919.83436.524
3019.60435.771
3119.40135.087
3219.20534.397
3318.99233.855
3418.79633.324
3518.58932.600
3618.36732.024
3718.20031.453
3817.97530.923
3917.73230.490
4017.51229.923
4117.33129.377
4217.16328.975
4316.99128.637
4416.77828.174
4516.57827.759
4616.43127.297
4716.26826.879
4816.04526.335
4915.92225.925
5015.77325.483
5115.62225.083
5215.46524.684
5315.31924.218
5415.18323.774
5515.04823.325
5614.88722.781
5714.69022.461
5814.56622.138
5914.41621.784
6014.27521.320
6114.15520.858
6214.02920.521
6313.88420.207
6413.73619.822
6513.60519.522
6613.47919.216
6713.30618.930
6813.14618.558
6913.01518.175
7012.89417.900
7112.77117.523
7212.65017.221
7312.44916.867
7412.29816.550
7512.14516.198
7611.97715.883
7711.79015.539
7811.64915.221
7911.46014.915
8011.26614.514
8111.11414.135
8210.91613.773
8310.68513.361
8410.54213.013
8510.38012.711
8610.10812.301
879.88511.876
889.68711.530
899.38611.113
909.15310.644
918.93010.201
928.6939.671
938.3999.097
948.0638.381
957.7307.856
967.4017.235
976.8546.293
986.2585.438
995.2724.372


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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