Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.08116.198
Median12.00025.483
Mean13.02530.410
75% Quartile16.06339.069
Interquartile Range6.98222.871

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.387104.606
227.63786.959
325.74980.613
424.50375.640
523.39972.097
622.57767.362
721.99564.164
821.45361.268
920.78158.465
1020.25356.413
1119.85154.743
1219.44652.934
1319.13951.585
1418.77650.251
1518.41548.807
1618.15247.675
1717.85046.371
1817.60245.060
1917.36643.920
2017.16943.032
2116.94542.182
2216.68341.244
2316.45240.594
2416.24039.654
2516.06439.069
2615.86938.569
2715.70637.811
2815.51537.214
2915.33336.524
3015.11135.771
3114.94335.087
3214.79834.397
3314.62333.855
3414.46833.324
3514.29932.600
3614.17332.024
3714.00031.453
3813.80330.923
3913.59330.490
4013.43129.923
4113.28729.377
4213.14028.975
4312.98028.637
4412.83828.174
4512.65427.759
4612.52727.297
4712.39126.879
4812.23226.335
4912.11925.925
5012.00025.483
5111.87525.083
5211.77824.684
5311.65024.218
5411.54423.774
5511.40123.325
5611.27122.781
5711.16722.461
5811.03022.138
5910.93221.784
6010.79221.320
6110.71420.858
6210.59620.521
6310.47720.207
6410.38819.822
6510.29119.522
6610.16319.216
6710.04418.930
689.92718.558
699.81718.175
709.67917.900
719.57317.523
729.43317.221
739.33016.867
749.20716.550
759.08116.198
768.95515.883
778.82215.539
788.66715.221
798.52414.915
808.39714.514
818.24914.135
828.11813.773
837.96513.361
847.80213.013
857.65112.711
867.47012.301
877.28311.876
887.11711.530
896.96311.113
906.76510.644
916.52310.201
926.2929.671
936.0819.097
945.8318.381
955.6047.856
965.2817.235
974.8006.293
984.2395.438
993.6274.372


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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