Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac



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Probability distribution for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile41.33916.198
Median51.72925.483
Mean54.46030.410
75% Quartile64.95739.069
Interquartile Range23.61822.871

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1110.249104.606
299.45586.959
394.75580.613
490.23075.640
587.69372.097
685.84667.362
783.92964.164
881.82361.268
980.31158.465
1078.72956.413
1177.48954.743
1276.32352.934
1375.10151.585
1474.07550.251
1572.98348.807
1671.97347.675
1770.90546.371
1869.83245.060
1968.99643.920
2068.40643.032
2167.58742.182
2266.99541.244
2366.17240.594
2465.62939.654
2564.96639.069
2664.45038.569
2763.79037.811
2863.22937.214
2962.42236.524
3061.80035.771
3161.30435.087
3260.74434.397
3360.31533.855
3459.80733.324
3559.12032.600
3658.65932.024
3758.12831.453
3857.54430.923
3956.98530.490
4056.48129.923
4155.99929.377
4255.56028.975
4355.10828.637
4454.55728.174
4553.98227.759
4653.56827.297
4753.06326.879
4852.52226.335
4952.15025.925
5051.72925.483
5151.40325.083
5251.00824.684
5350.57424.218
5450.19623.774
5549.73923.325
5649.33222.781
5748.95622.461
5848.51022.138
5948.17021.784
6047.76921.320
6147.34220.858
6246.93420.521
6346.51420.207
6446.04919.822
6545.60819.522
6645.16319.216
6744.75718.930
6844.35418.558
6943.91718.175
7043.53717.900
7143.11117.523
7242.78917.221
7342.29416.867
7441.83316.550
7541.32416.198
7640.91915.883
7740.42215.539
7839.99115.221
7939.54014.915
8038.79814.514
8138.37514.135
8237.87613.773
8337.31213.361
8436.86913.013
8536.29112.711
8635.83412.301
8735.06611.876
8834.56011.530
8933.85411.113
9033.10710.644
9132.11110.201
9231.2909.671
9330.5629.097
9429.6948.381
9528.7827.856
9627.9447.235
9726.3806.293
9824.5105.438
9921.6624.372


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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