Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep42.32232.5494.05129.91395.081
Sep-Oct82.07053.4776.38752.658211.423
Sep-Nov109.92566.9318.54071.691260.579

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10128.739196.521
20109.526162.691
3097.137140.629
4086.502120.205
5078.013102.746
6070.39184.674
7062.72468.695
8054.00352.303
9043.94034.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1189.229282.221
2169.726254.948
3160.387244.235
4153.046235.412
5147.062228.863
6142.900219.725
7138.780213.272
8134.792207.210
9130.989201.124
10128.739196.521
11126.228192.678
12123.902188.407
13121.372185.143
14119.441181.850
15117.832178.202
16116.439175.283
17114.536171.848
18112.873168.317
19111.258165.181
20109.526162.691
21108.230160.268
22106.775157.550
23105.432155.635
24103.883152.825
25102.833151.050
26101.498149.514
27100.319147.160
2899.140145.277
2998.103143.074
3097.137140.629
3196.185138.375
3295.034136.067
3393.803134.231
3492.553132.409
3591.425129.888
3690.298127.857
3789.396125.813
3888.299123.894
3987.415122.306
4086.502120.205
4185.416118.156
4284.554116.628
4383.866115.333
4483.077113.545
4582.208111.925
4681.407110.100
4780.587108.432
4879.748106.239
4978.894104.567
5078.013102.746
5177.345101.082
5276.40899.406
5375.69297.431
5474.85695.528
5574.12793.583
5673.39691.206
5772.76289.791
5871.88988.354
5971.13686.769
6070.39184.674
6169.69782.569
6269.12581.024
6368.27979.573
6467.39677.783
6566.53976.383
6665.66174.946
6764.90273.599
6864.24471.834
6963.48370.012
7062.72468.695
7161.94566.887
7261.04965.434
7360.11963.722
7459.23762.188
7558.53460.481
7657.64958.952
7756.81957.281
7855.89455.735
7955.00154.251
8054.00352.303
8153.00850.470
8252.10048.724
8351.20346.740
8450.22345.080
8549.36543.641
8648.29541.706
8747.18139.714
8846.13638.115
8944.98236.202
9043.94034.085
9142.76632.120
9241.30429.816
9339.70827.385
9437.97024.462
9536.18922.397
9634.38020.054
9731.58916.710
9828.89713.909
9924.99710.752


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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