Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct40.31026.65523.7422.33522.196108.017
Oct-Nov68.49863.55345.3844.48939.760163.997
Oct-Dec88.293104.73458.9315.37757.785190.802

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1089.786154.768
2077.712127.784
3068.996110.167
4062.15993.834
5056.29679.854
6050.75665.370
7045.26652.573
8039.63539.504
9032.30925.166

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1131.037223.056
2117.783201.329
3109.786192.794
4105.546185.764
5101.799180.546
699.014173.264
796.262168.120
893.957163.289
991.680158.437
1089.786154.768
1188.511151.704
1287.183148.298
1385.669145.695
1484.430143.069
1583.208140.160
1681.932137.832
1780.981135.091
1880.032132.274
1978.870129.772
2077.712127.784
2176.796125.850
2275.978123.680
2375.046122.152
2473.920119.908
2573.067118.491
2672.217117.264
2771.386115.384
2870.522113.880
2969.792112.120
3068.996110.167
3168.317108.365
3267.549106.520
3366.816105.052
3466.195103.596
3565.549101.580
3664.89499.956
3764.17798.321
3863.48496.786
3962.70395.516
4062.15993.834
4161.67892.194
4260.95790.971
4360.35189.935
4459.59388.503
4559.08787.206
4658.55585.744
4758.00084.409
4857.33882.652
4956.96781.312
5056.29679.854
5155.87578.520
5255.30977.177
5354.80575.594
5454.02574.069
5553.53472.510
5652.86470.605
5752.22469.471
5851.72168.319
5951.23867.048
6050.75665.370
6150.35563.683
6249.92662.444
6349.46961.282
6448.86859.848
6548.07958.726
6647.51957.576
6747.00056.497
6846.50355.084
6945.86553.626
7045.26652.573
7144.79351.127
7244.20849.966
7343.69748.599
7443.13747.374
7542.61146.012
7642.01644.793
7741.53043.463
7840.79442.232
7940.22241.052
8039.63539.504
8139.06838.050
8238.42136.667
8337.74635.098
8437.01033.787
8536.27332.652
8635.53531.129
8734.63929.565
8833.93928.312
8933.15426.817
9032.30925.166
9131.31823.640
9230.41021.857
9329.26819.983
9428.27117.743
9527.16616.169
9625.69614.393
9724.15811.879
9822.1179.795
9919.1827.473


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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