Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov28.18836.89821.6422.80617.56448.285
Nov-Dec47.98378.07935.1894.80535.589110.468
Nov-Jan61.40999.90442.6635.81544.655132.924

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1065.592105.855
2055.84487.764
3049.30776.019
4043.95465.204
5039.02456.018
6034.70946.575
7030.58938.268
8026.13829.748
9020.21120.153

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
193.190151.856
284.792137.205
379.850131.452
476.581126.715
573.933123.200
671.690118.296
769.839114.834
868.210111.584
966.878108.321
1065.592105.855
1164.308103.797
1263.399101.510
1362.26299.763
1461.09998.001
1559.93496.050
1659.18394.489
1758.17892.653
1857.31990.767
1956.43889.093
2055.84487.764
2155.18886.471
2254.55385.022
2353.68484.002
2452.96282.505
2552.25681.560
2651.54780.742
2750.96779.490
2850.38478.488
2949.76677.317
3049.30776.019
3148.66774.822
3248.15173.597
3347.69672.624
3447.05371.658
3546.52870.323
3645.89169.248
3745.32568.167
3844.85067.152
3944.43066.313
4043.95465.204
4143.47964.123
4242.92463.317
4342.37162.635
4441.80561.693
4541.36360.840
4640.90759.880
4740.36659.003
4839.87457.851
4939.45756.973
5039.02456.018
5138.60755.146
5238.20154.268
5337.75253.234
5437.36852.239
5536.96051.222
5636.51049.980
5736.16049.242
5835.59348.493
5935.06247.666
6034.70946.575
6134.34345.479
6233.93644.674
6333.50043.920
6433.00142.989
6532.57242.261
6632.21241.515
6731.74240.815
6831.36139.898
6930.97638.952
7030.58938.268
7130.08137.330
7229.71236.575
7329.22635.687
7428.67434.890
7528.29434.003
7628.00033.209
7727.55632.340
7827.14731.536
7926.65530.763
8026.13829.748
8125.56928.792
8224.97427.880
8324.52226.842
8423.99425.971
8523.45125.216
8622.78124.197
8722.24823.146
8821.64722.299
8920.98021.283
9020.21120.153
9119.71319.100
9219.05917.860
9318.33116.541
9417.49614.941
9516.59613.800
9615.63512.493
9714.04910.601
9812.6668.986
9910.3037.126


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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