Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Dec19.79541.18113.5471.99918.02528.946
Dec-Jan33.22163.00621.0203.00827.09195.485
Dec-Feb42.16388.40328.8723.66135.804125.488

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1055.52974.411
2046.84258.263
3041.38749.149
4037.15341.586
5033.37035.688
6029.92130.011
7026.87525.227
8023.07020.362
9018.56314.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.298128.240
274.383109.099
369.077102.082
465.86096.523
563.35792.527
661.47087.136
759.61883.458
858.00980.101
956.73976.826
1055.52974.411
1154.48172.436
1253.54170.284
1352.33468.670
1451.44467.068
1550.54865.324
1649.65463.952
1748.99562.364
1848.10860.759
1947.42059.359
2046.84258.263
2146.32957.210
2245.65856.045
2345.15255.234
2444.67254.058
2544.03453.324
2643.44752.694
2742.97751.739
2842.47650.983
2941.87050.108
3041.38749.149
3140.88948.275
3240.45947.391
3340.16946.695
3439.63346.011
3539.16945.075
3638.84244.329
3738.39243.586
3837.95042.896
3937.52042.329
4037.15341.586
4136.68440.869
4236.18140.339
4335.70439.892
4435.29739.280
4534.91838.730
4634.62838.115
4734.31437.558
4834.05936.831
4933.64336.282
5033.37035.688
5132.98135.149
5232.68834.610
5332.26333.979
5431.97133.376
5531.54132.764
5631.15832.021
5730.90031.582
5830.54831.139
5930.20330.651
6029.92130.011
6129.60629.372
6229.36428.904
6329.10128.467
6428.76727.930
6528.41027.511
6628.11427.082
6727.77626.681
6827.51626.156
6927.17225.616
7026.87525.227
7126.52824.692
7226.14724.262
7325.78523.757
7425.43523.303
7525.02422.798
7624.68422.345
7724.29921.849
7823.95221.389
7923.48620.946
8023.07020.362
8122.73719.809
8222.38219.279
8321.90918.672
8421.47418.159
8521.03917.711
8620.67117.102
8720.20516.467
8819.66515.950
8919.05915.322
9018.56314.613
9118.05413.940
9217.29313.130
9316.75312.246
9416.13611.137
9515.29910.315
9614.3239.337
9713.3597.835
9812.3866.452
9910.5734.698


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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