Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan13.45121.8257.4742.5519.06621.825
Jan-Feb22.47547.22215.3253.50617.77947.222
Jan-Mar33.922200.73624.5534.72437.910200.736

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.47656.413
2030.43043.032
3027.22535.771
4024.54129.923
5022.20325.483
6020.21321.320
7018.33817.900
8016.14714.514
9013.36410.644

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.562104.606
247.07086.959
343.88480.613
441.85275.640
540.36772.097
639.37767.362
738.16364.164
837.22961.268
936.17458.465
1035.47656.413
1134.82354.743
1234.25552.934
1333.76551.585
1433.23850.251
1532.63248.807
1632.18347.675
1731.73246.371
1831.23045.060
1930.81543.920
2030.43043.032
2130.07742.182
2229.78241.244
2329.40340.594
2428.98839.654
2528.73939.069
2628.38138.569
2728.10237.811
2827.83737.214
2927.48936.524
3027.22535.771
3126.88735.087
3226.64134.397
3326.35333.855
3426.08133.324
3525.84032.600
3625.57132.024
3725.36031.453
3825.06830.923
3924.80330.490
4024.54129.923
4124.23629.377
4223.96128.975
4323.72828.637
4423.50328.174
4523.28027.759
4623.07327.297
4722.84426.879
4822.65426.335
4922.39725.925
5022.20325.483
5121.99125.083
5221.75124.684
5321.57024.218
5421.39223.774
5521.15923.325
5620.97522.781
5720.79822.461
5820.60422.138
5920.42521.784
6020.21321.320
6120.04720.858
6219.82120.521
6319.64520.207
6419.43019.822
6519.25619.522
6619.10819.216
6718.92718.930
6818.73318.558
6918.55218.175
7018.33817.900
7118.12317.523
7217.93117.221
7317.76016.867
7417.53516.550
7517.35216.198
7617.15515.883
7716.93315.539
7816.61515.221
7916.35314.915
8016.14714.514
8115.91314.135
8215.69813.773
8315.40813.361
8415.12313.013
8514.90012.711
8614.57612.301
8714.26711.876
8813.99711.530
8913.65011.113
9013.36410.644
9113.05410.201
9212.7209.671
9312.2989.097
9411.8768.381
9511.4217.856
9610.9357.235
9710.3406.293
989.4275.438
998.0794.372


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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