Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr11.17831.6187.5403.2027.71486.144
Apr-May27.01856.68117.5596.76915.769171.151
Apr-Jun49.59279.15836.03110.55526.452315.496

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.94388.394
2069.28565.094
3058.53753.213
4050.01544.018
5043.00737.262
6037.07031.105
7031.38626.183
8025.89921.439
9019.44216.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1157.054190.978
2134.134149.495
3121.397135.780
4113.010125.430
5106.709118.260
6101.318108.932
797.701102.787
894.42497.329
991.14092.138
1087.94388.394
1185.43385.384
1282.72282.155
1380.70579.770
1478.57477.432
1576.74074.920
1674.86172.968
1773.29970.733
1871.84368.505
1970.64366.583
2069.28565.094
2168.04263.676
2266.54662.120
2365.44861.046
2464.28859.501
2563.42658.545
2662.22257.729
2761.43456.499
2860.44755.532
2959.46154.421
3058.53753.213
3157.59352.120
3256.71551.022
3355.72450.164
3454.82549.325
3553.88748.185
3652.96547.284
3752.29746.392
3851.60845.567
3950.75744.895
4050.01544.018
4149.46143.177
4248.61542.559
4347.81642.041
4447.11041.334
4546.41840.701
4645.70939.999
4745.04739.365
4844.36338.543
4943.63037.926
5043.00737.262
5142.31136.663
5241.65936.066
5341.09635.373
5440.40734.713
5539.87834.048
5639.35933.246
5738.89532.775
5838.12032.300
5937.61531.782
6037.07031.105
6136.53430.433
6235.93929.944
6335.27529.489
6434.72628.933
6534.10928.502
6633.52328.062
6733.01227.653
6832.48527.120
6931.87726.575
7031.38626.183
7130.80025.649
7230.25225.222
7329.74124.722
7429.17724.276
7528.53023.782
7628.05623.341
7727.43622.861
7826.95122.419
7926.50721.995
8025.89921.439
8125.31420.917
8224.85020.420
8324.13519.855
8423.49619.381
8522.76918.970
8622.01418.415
8721.53917.840
8820.86217.376
8920.19616.817
9019.44216.191
9118.62015.604
9217.64514.904
9316.89814.151
9415.95613.219
9514.84412.541
9613.82411.745
9712.33210.551
9811.0099.481
998.5978.168


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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