Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Product list for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Goobarragandra River at Lacmalac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Dec19.69413.5479.0331.99918.90028.946
Dec-Jan33.02421.02014.6473.00828.52895.485
Dec-Feb41.94928.87220.9523.66137.849125.488

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1043.38174.411
2036.13558.263
3031.66049.149
4028.21541.586
5025.06135.688
6022.47530.011
7019.92425.227
8016.98320.362
9013.42814.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.754128.240
259.502109.099
355.012102.082
452.34796.523
549.99192.527
648.38387.136
747.09483.458
845.65980.101
944.19776.826
1043.38174.411
1142.24872.436
1241.44470.284
1340.72968.670
1439.99667.068
1539.15265.324
1638.42763.952
1737.90962.364
1837.22060.759
1936.63059.359
2036.13558.263
2135.70257.210
2235.11356.045
2334.69755.234
2434.23454.058
2533.75053.324
2633.29352.694
2732.97851.739
2832.50350.983
2932.09450.108
3031.66049.149
3131.28948.275
3230.94247.391
3330.60846.695
3430.20646.011
3529.83345.075
3629.48144.329
3729.20043.586
3828.83342.896
3928.49042.329
4028.21541.586
4127.87040.869
4227.51540.339
4327.17339.892
4426.86739.280
4526.58438.730
4626.26538.115
4725.99537.558
4825.67236.831
4925.39436.282
5025.06135.688
5124.78435.149
5224.51134.610
5324.25333.979
5423.97533.376
5523.69532.764
5623.46232.021
5723.19431.582
5822.93431.139
5922.70730.651
6022.47530.011
6122.24329.372
6221.92628.904
6321.69528.467
6421.50227.930
6521.20627.511
6620.85927.082
6720.63626.681
6820.41826.156
6920.16925.616
7019.92425.227
7119.67224.692
7219.36024.262
7319.09923.757
7418.82323.303
7518.56822.798
7618.23122.345
7717.88121.849
7817.57321.389
7917.32720.946
8016.98320.362
8116.71819.809
8216.41819.279
8316.21718.672
8415.88118.159
8515.37417.711
8615.07117.102
8714.64316.467
8814.28515.950
8913.85615.322
9013.42814.613
9112.92413.940
9212.46013.130
9311.96712.246
9411.52211.137
9510.89310.315
9610.1449.337
979.3667.835
988.3906.452
997.0844.698


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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