Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.06536.697
2018.30729.389
3015.79724.636
4013.68220.268
5011.86116.591
6010.19412.900
708.3979.807
806.5046.881
904.2754.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.52255.214
230.01249.322
328.18147.008
426.77945.101
525.71043.686
624.64341.711
723.90340.317
823.31439.007
922.59937.692
1022.06536.697
1121.72135.866
1221.19934.943
1320.89034.238
1420.43633.527
1520.03432.739
1619.67532.108
1719.30331.366
1818.94230.604
1918.63229.927
2018.30729.389
2118.04628.866
2217.73328.280
2317.50027.867
2417.18627.261
2516.95426.879
2616.72626.548
2716.48926.041
2816.26025.636
2916.01925.162
3015.79724.636
3115.58124.152
3215.37423.657
3315.15323.263
3414.95922.873
3514.71722.333
3614.51321.899
3714.30621.462
3814.06721.053
3913.85620.715
4013.68220.268
4113.53019.833
4213.37919.509
4313.14819.234
4412.98018.856
4512.76618.514
4612.53618.130
4712.35617.780
4812.20117.320
4912.04716.970
5011.86116.591
5111.69116.245
5211.54515.898
5311.34815.490
5411.16815.099
5511.01614.700
5610.83414.216
5710.66113.929
5810.49713.639
5910.34213.320
6010.19412.900
619.99912.482
629.80212.177
639.60811.892
649.40511.542
659.24411.270
669.10110.993
678.93210.734
688.74210.398
698.58910.054
708.3979.807
718.2289.471
728.0319.202
737.8848.889
747.6848.611
757.4848.305
767.3168.033
777.1247.739
786.9217.469
796.6917.213
806.5046.881
816.3536.573
826.1546.283
836.0015.958
845.7405.690
855.5365.461
865.3015.156
875.1214.848
884.8874.605
894.5654.318
904.2754.006
913.9973.722
923.6743.396
933.3903.060
943.0712.666
952.6372.396
962.1742.097
971.5971.684
980.9391.353
990.0150.996


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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