Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.44614.784
2012.54311.046
3010.8969.007
409.5027.384
508.2796.177
607.2455.076
706.3254.200
805.3473.366
904.1372.461

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.09627.013
222.41822.791
320.71521.202
419.63419.929
518.57819.007
617.76917.756
717.05716.899
816.40316.114
915.88415.349
1015.44614.784
1115.06814.323
1214.62613.821
1314.33513.445
1414.09113.073
1513.80512.669
1613.57612.351
1713.26911.985
1812.99511.617
1912.75711.296
2012.54311.046
2112.35210.807
2212.14910.543
2311.96510.360
2411.77210.096
2511.6369.932
2611.4709.791
2711.3249.578
2811.1619.411
2911.0029.217
3010.8969.007
3110.7438.815
3210.6008.623
3310.4508.472
3410.3008.324
3510.1718.123
3610.0227.964
379.8977.806
389.7667.659
399.6337.540
409.5027.384
419.3757.234
429.2557.124
439.1367.032
449.0236.905
458.8586.792
468.7376.667
478.6296.554
488.5046.407
498.3746.296
508.2796.177
518.1906.070
528.0805.963
537.9645.839
547.8555.721
557.7505.602
567.6455.459
577.5555.374
587.4405.290
597.3525.197
607.2455.076
617.1744.956
627.0754.869
636.9664.788
646.8834.689
656.8014.612
666.7094.534
676.6274.461
686.5174.366
696.4284.270
706.3254.200
716.2444.106
726.1444.030
736.0543.942
745.9763.863
755.8743.776
765.8003.699
775.7043.615
785.5753.537
795.4533.463
805.3473.366
815.2413.275
825.1423.188
835.0423.090
844.9073.008
854.7582.937
864.6512.841
874.5382.743
884.3942.663
894.2782.567
904.1372.461
913.9612.361
923.7722.243
933.5692.117
943.3891.961
953.1921.849
963.0001.718
972.7231.523
982.3391.350
991.7551.142


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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