Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.90036.697
2025.14029.389
3022.62124.636
4020.40120.268
5018.46716.591
6016.53812.900
7014.4489.807
8012.1876.881
908.9234.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
139.33855.214
236.49149.322
334.70047.008
433.29545.101
532.37043.686
631.53041.711
730.82140.317
830.26939.007
929.50737.692
1028.90036.697
1128.44935.866
1228.02734.943
1327.60234.238
1427.15633.527
1526.77932.739
1626.36832.108
1726.03031.366
1825.71030.604
1925.42829.927
2025.14029.389
2124.81428.866
2224.58328.280
2324.30727.867
2424.06427.261
2523.84326.879
2623.58026.548
2723.34926.041
2823.08425.636
2922.84725.162
3022.62124.636
3122.37224.152
3222.14823.657
3321.92523.263
3421.70522.873
3521.49622.333
3621.29421.899
3721.08021.462
3820.89921.053
3920.60920.715
4020.40120.268
4120.22219.833
4220.04919.509
4319.80319.234
4419.57318.856
4519.42418.514
4619.26018.130
4719.10817.780
4818.86717.320
4918.68516.970
5018.46716.591
5118.25516.245
5218.06115.898
5317.83015.490
5417.65315.099
5517.44814.700
5617.26214.216
5717.08213.929
5816.89413.639
5916.69713.320
6016.53812.900
6116.33112.482
6216.12912.177
6315.95211.892
6415.74111.542
6515.56011.270
6615.36410.993
6715.07010.734
6814.86310.398
6914.66810.054
7014.4489.807
7114.2639.471
7214.0349.202
7313.7838.889
7413.5368.611
7513.3428.305
7613.0978.033
7712.8447.739
7812.6097.469
7912.4037.213
8012.1876.881
8111.8816.573
8211.6286.283
8311.3705.958
8411.1145.690
8510.7455.461
8610.3985.156
8710.0434.848
889.6954.605
899.3034.318
908.9234.006
918.6093.722
928.1413.396
937.6333.060
947.2112.666
956.7112.396
966.0042.097
975.4541.684
984.4351.353
993.1060.996


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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