Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.52015.931
208.67212.379
307.49410.237
406.4488.415
505.6266.998
604.8285.667
704.0484.596
803.2123.578
902.1272.495

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.95825.631
214.13222.487
313.22321.262
412.58120.259
512.01519.519
611.67418.492
711.29817.772
811.01017.101
910.75316.433
1010.52015.931
1110.31315.515
1210.08215.056
139.85814.708
149.69214.359
159.52613.975
169.31613.670
179.13913.313
188.97512.950
198.79712.631
208.67212.379
218.52812.136
228.37911.866
238.27511.676
248.14811.401
258.05811.228
267.94011.080
277.84210.854
287.70810.674
297.60510.466
307.49410.237
317.40210.028
327.2379.815
337.1299.648
347.0239.483
356.9339.258
366.8379.078
376.7438.899
386.6478.732
396.5358.595
406.4488.415
416.3448.242
426.2658.114
436.1728.007
446.0857.859
456.0107.727
465.9317.579
475.8627.445
485.7607.271
495.6827.139
505.6266.998
515.5506.869
525.4646.741
535.3906.592
545.3066.450
555.2416.306
565.1596.132
575.0616.030
584.9965.927
594.9005.814
604.8285.667
614.7445.521
624.6725.414
634.5905.315
644.5165.194
654.4335.100
664.3465.004
674.2754.915
684.2084.800
694.1084.681
704.0484.596
713.9714.480
723.8954.388
733.8354.280
743.7534.184
753.6654.078
763.5793.983
773.4833.880
783.3993.786
793.3123.696
803.2123.578
813.1023.468
823.0163.363
832.9203.245
842.8303.146
852.7193.061
862.6112.946
872.5042.828
882.3592.734
892.2552.621
902.1272.495
911.9652.378
921.7872.241
931.6402.094
941.4691.916
951.2551.789
961.0371.641
970.7761.426
980.4681.239
990.0551.018


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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