Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.1959.162
205.8957.202
304.9776.009
404.2844.984
503.7174.178
603.1713.413
702.6342.789
802.0432.190
901.4061.544

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.54514.473
29.63312.755
39.14312.085
48.76111.536
58.38911.130
68.13210.568
77.83610.173
87.5319.805
97.3469.438
107.1959.162
117.0398.934
126.9138.681
136.7458.489
146.5908.296
156.4568.085
166.3157.916
176.2107.719
186.1167.519
196.0027.342
205.8957.202
215.7927.067
225.6886.917
235.6056.812
245.5226.658
255.4236.562
265.3306.480
275.2486.353
285.1526.253
295.0726.137
304.9776.009
314.9045.892
324.8415.773
334.7655.679
344.6825.586
354.6085.460
364.5555.358
374.4795.257
384.4175.163
394.3515.086
404.2844.984
414.2274.886
424.1704.814
434.1074.753
444.0584.669
454.0074.594
463.9554.510
473.8764.433
483.8214.334
493.7654.259
503.7174.178
513.6454.105
523.5854.031
533.5313.946
543.4833.864
553.4173.781
563.3693.681
573.3183.622
583.2713.563
593.2173.498
603.1713.413
613.1243.328
623.0723.266
633.0173.209
642.9573.138
652.9063.084
662.8553.028
672.7962.976
682.7412.908
692.6862.839
702.6342.789
712.5742.721
722.5282.667
732.4712.604
742.3962.547
752.3422.485
762.2712.429
772.2012.369
782.1432.313
792.0922.259
802.0432.190
811.9982.124
821.9482.062
831.8941.992
841.8351.933
851.7661.882
861.6981.814
871.6391.744
881.5491.687
891.4811.619
901.4061.544
911.2991.474
921.2011.391
931.1101.302
940.9931.194
950.8811.117
960.7541.027
970.6080.896
980.4200.781
990.0690.645


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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