Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook



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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.37624.255
2022.16417.567
3018.42514.197
4015.78311.624
5013.6619.748
6011.7178.052
7010.0106.720
808.1055.442
906.0024.047

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
150.83354.520
240.66542.202
337.48438.120
435.21135.086
533.26332.917
632.12530.229
730.95628.444
829.92526.845
929.17725.338
1028.37624.255
1127.57623.388
1226.79322.463
1326.03221.775
1425.43021.095
1524.70120.373
1623.97119.820
1723.50619.173
1822.99718.533
1922.52317.987
2022.16417.567
2121.68117.165
2221.25816.708
2320.90016.418
2420.55515.976
2520.18015.709
2619.79315.479
2719.45715.123
2819.07114.845
2918.76314.542
3018.42514.197
3118.18613.893
3217.95313.576
3317.59513.336
3417.22013.111
3516.99412.784
3616.76212.537
3716.53912.286
3816.26412.058
3916.04711.868
4015.78311.624
4115.56911.388
4215.31711.218
4315.14411.071
4414.88110.877
4514.65710.702
4614.46810.504
4714.23410.333
4814.06110.105
4913.8629.931
5013.6619.748
5113.4279.583
5213.2199.422
5312.9929.225
5412.8349.050
5512.6668.856
5612.4608.644
5712.2828.515
5812.0518.382
5911.9028.243
6011.7178.052
6111.5277.873
6211.3717.741
6311.1967.615
6410.9847.467
6510.8257.350
6610.6677.230
6710.5117.119
6810.3736.974
6910.1646.826
7010.0106.720
719.7936.576
729.6026.460
739.4286.325
749.2736.205
759.0686.071
768.9095.953
778.6915.824
788.4615.705
798.2845.591
808.1055.442
817.9535.302
827.7485.169
837.5215.019
847.3404.892
857.1804.783
866.9334.635
876.6384.483
886.3984.360
896.2144.212
906.0024.047
915.7383.892
925.4543.708
935.1303.510
944.7993.267
954.5253.090
964.1242.884
973.6912.575
983.1662.301
992.4461.966


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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