Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.4905.435
Median5.17510.251
Mean5.39211.371
75% Quartile7.10116.067
Interquartile Range3.61110.632

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.15232.028
211.89828.708
311.10327.404
410.65626.330
510.19425.533
69.88824.421
79.62023.635
89.36222.898
99.11122.157
108.93121.597
118.74221.129
128.60720.609
138.44520.212
148.29619.811
158.13819.367
168.02219.012
177.92818.595
187.80218.165
197.70517.784
207.58617.481
217.47917.187
227.37316.856
237.29516.624
247.20816.282
257.10216.067
266.99515.881
276.88115.595
286.80015.367
296.72515.099
306.62914.803
316.54514.530
326.47814.251
336.38514.029
346.30413.808
356.21913.504
366.12413.259
376.05213.012
385.97612.781
395.90112.590
405.83012.337
415.74512.091
425.69311.908
435.62811.752
445.56311.538
455.48811.344
465.43111.126
475.36710.927
485.30510.666
495.23210.467
505.17510.251
515.12310.054
525.0489.856
534.9919.623
544.9159.400
554.8549.172
564.7828.894
574.7128.729
584.6318.562
594.5628.378
604.4898.136
614.4317.894
624.3667.717
634.3157.551
644.2637.348
654.2037.189
664.1367.027
674.0616.876
683.9956.678
693.9276.475
703.8786.330
713.8066.130
723.7205.971
733.6385.785
743.5745.618
753.4905.435
763.4135.271
773.3415.093
783.2494.930
793.1914.775
803.1184.572
813.0154.383
822.9274.204
832.8504.003
842.7603.836
852.6423.693
862.5203.502
872.4183.308
882.2963.153
892.1572.970
902.0462.770
911.8782.587
921.6882.375
931.5242.154
941.3181.894
951.1181.714
960.8421.512
970.5211.231
980.1921.002
990.0140.751


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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