Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook



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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.3992.182
Median2.0543.433
Mean2.1804.155
75% Quartile2.8355.342
Interquartile Range1.4363.160

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.39514.231
24.84311.968
34.56611.128
44.33810.460
54.1669.979
64.0349.329
73.9368.887
83.8108.483
93.7318.091
103.6427.803
113.5667.567
123.4847.312
133.4117.121
143.3356.932
153.2746.726
163.2196.566
173.1646.380
183.1196.194
193.0756.032
203.0265.905
212.9865.784
222.9535.651
232.9155.558
242.8745.425
252.8365.342
262.8085.270
272.7665.163
282.7375.078
292.7064.980
302.6684.874
312.6344.777
322.6004.679
332.5644.603
342.5354.528
352.4994.426
362.4614.345
372.4344.264
382.4034.190
392.3684.129
402.3384.050
412.3033.974
422.2773.917
432.2453.870
442.2193.806
452.1933.748
462.1673.684
472.1393.626
482.1113.551
492.0823.494
502.0543.433
512.0333.378
522.0113.323
531.9853.259
541.9623.198
551.9323.136
561.9033.062
571.8833.019
581.8632.975
591.8322.927
601.8092.864
611.7812.801
621.7532.756
631.7212.714
641.6942.662
651.6662.622
661.6432.581
671.6132.543
681.5842.493
691.5562.442
701.5322.406
711.5082.356
721.4762.316
731.4532.269
741.4282.228
751.3992.182
761.3682.140
771.3372.096
781.3122.054
791.2812.015
801.2481.963
811.2141.914
821.1851.867
831.1461.815
841.1101.770
851.0761.732
861.0461.680
871.0091.626
880.9721.583
890.9121.531
900.8641.472
910.7911.418
920.7331.352
930.6741.282
940.6101.196
950.5351.133
960.4511.059
970.3430.948
980.2250.849
990.0870.728


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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