Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.7573.776
Median6.7346.177
Mean7.6267.628
75% Quartile9.6029.931
Interquartile Range4.8456.155

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.12227.013
219.39322.791
317.55221.202
416.62019.929
515.70919.007
615.05517.756
714.27816.899
813.85116.114
913.34815.349
1012.89014.784
1112.57314.323
1212.24613.821
1311.91213.445
1411.71313.073
1511.51412.669
1611.27912.351
1711.02111.985
1810.80311.617
1910.56411.296
2010.40511.046
2110.21110.807
2210.04510.543
239.87310.360
249.75310.096
259.6079.932
269.4659.791
279.3149.578
289.1779.411
299.0619.217
308.9339.007
318.8408.815
328.6788.623
338.5458.472
348.4408.324
358.3338.123
368.2147.964
378.1077.806
388.0037.659
397.8647.540
407.7707.384
417.6617.234
427.5597.124
437.4437.032
447.3256.905
457.2446.792
467.1396.667
477.0236.554
486.9376.407
496.8486.296
506.7346.177
516.6436.070
526.5575.963
536.4795.839
546.3885.721
556.2945.602
566.2085.459
576.1235.374
586.0405.290
595.9645.197
605.8605.076
615.7734.956
625.7054.869
635.6324.788
645.5544.689
655.4814.612
665.4224.534
675.3394.461
685.2534.366
695.1954.270
705.1124.200
715.0464.106
724.9834.030
734.8903.942
744.8223.863
754.7573.776
764.6613.699
774.5613.615
784.4833.537
794.3893.463
804.2943.366
814.2043.275
824.1063.188
834.0173.090
843.9273.008
853.7872.937
863.6932.841
873.6022.743
883.4702.663
893.3642.567
903.2602.461
913.1162.361
922.9772.243
932.8312.117
942.6491.961
952.4621.849
962.2941.718
972.1001.523
981.8091.350
991.3671.142


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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