Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook



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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.0591.881
Median6.7543.278
Mean7.1104.440
75% Quartile8.7595.682
Interquartile Range3.7003.800

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.08319.746
214.36815.878
313.47814.464
412.92413.369
512.50512.563
612.10011.540
711.73610.847
811.40810.217
911.1689.616
1010.8409.181
1110.5968.830
1210.4398.455
1310.2448.174
1410.0687.896
159.9237.600
169.7537.373
179.5977.108
189.4976.844
199.3686.619
209.2606.446
219.1636.281
229.0546.093
238.9465.974
248.8455.792
258.7605.683
268.6875.589
278.5675.442
288.4665.329
298.3595.205
308.2745.064
318.1984.940
328.1204.811
338.0494.713
347.9704.622
357.8894.489
367.8064.390
377.7354.288
387.6534.197
397.5694.120
407.4894.022
417.4233.928
427.3623.860
437.2803.801
447.2043.724
457.1333.655
467.0533.576
476.9793.508
486.9063.418
496.8293.350
506.7543.278
516.6733.213
526.6153.150
536.5513.074
546.4693.005
556.4112.931
566.3262.849
576.2552.799
586.1982.748
596.1322.694
606.0822.621
616.0042.553
625.9472.503
635.8922.456
645.8172.400
655.7582.355
665.7052.310
675.6322.269
685.5722.215
695.5012.159
705.4222.120
715.3582.066
725.2872.024
735.2031.974
745.1251.930
755.0591.881
764.9761.838
774.8751.791
784.8141.748
794.7501.707
804.6581.654
814.5801.604
824.4841.557
834.3761.503
844.2811.459
854.1961.420
864.1091.369
874.0031.316
883.9081.273
893.8191.222
903.7081.166
913.5791.113
923.4311.052
933.2940.986
943.0890.906
952.9310.848
962.7740.781
972.4950.684
982.1400.598
991.7170.497


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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