Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Aug9.5126.6911.5825.92134.881
Aug-Sep17.88911.7442.76811.78549.824
Aug-Oct23.49014.5053.43015.70559.671

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.57850.181
2036.73438.938
3031.67931.816
4027.49525.514
5023.91020.472
6020.68115.707
7017.47311.942
8014.0108.528
9010.2385.211

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.81279.170
263.14969.919
356.23466.288
453.66163.300
551.00061.084
649.50757.996
748.17355.818
846.51353.775
945.63451.727
1044.57850.181
1143.74448.892
1242.79647.463
1341.76346.372
1440.88945.274
1540.20544.060
1639.32143.091
1738.79441.953
1838.09340.787
1937.39039.755
2036.73438.938
2136.23938.144
2235.58337.257
2334.98836.634
2434.42735.723
2533.97335.149
2633.60034.654
2733.08633.898
2832.59433.295
2932.11832.592
3031.67931.816
3131.19931.104
3230.82630.379
3330.34429.805
3429.90029.238
3529.56928.457
3629.04527.833
3728.64827.208
3828.28126.625
3927.82426.145
4027.49525.514
4127.11424.904
4226.70224.451
4326.39024.070
4425.99623.547
4525.67623.076
4625.40322.549
4725.02122.072
4824.65321.450
4924.31520.980
5023.91020.472
5123.53420.013
5223.17419.554
5322.82019.018
5422.55518.508
5522.26117.992
5621.96717.370
5721.62417.003
5821.24416.635
5920.92516.232
6020.68115.707
6120.42515.186
6220.19214.808
6319.83014.457
6419.52514.029
6519.22913.698
6618.86413.362
6718.59013.050
6818.23612.647
6917.85612.235
7017.47311.942
7117.11911.543
7216.76411.227
7316.47210.859
7416.11610.533
7515.84310.176
7615.4889.860
7715.1699.518
7814.7069.206
7914.3738.911
8014.0108.528
8113.6968.173
8213.2497.839
8312.8877.466
8412.5647.158
8512.2016.894
8611.8306.544
8711.4246.188
8811.0605.907
8910.6285.574
9010.2385.211
919.7664.879
929.2174.495
938.7134.096
948.1103.625
957.4413.297
966.8342.930
975.9702.414
984.9051.989
993.3231.518


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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