Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
May2.4183.4731.6261.3251.5162.479
May-Jun6.3777.0175.3372.7573.58721.506
May-Jul13.33913.3179.6814.4767.64152.020

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.90424.255
2017.61117.567
3014.69214.197
4012.43011.624
5010.6689.748
609.1008.052
707.7726.720
806.2145.442
904.5104.047

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.80754.520
234.00142.202
330.72238.120
429.13435.086
527.62432.917
626.47130.229
725.22328.444
824.21426.845
923.46625.338
1022.90424.255
1122.18723.388
1221.56822.463
1320.99921.775
1420.37121.095
1519.81820.373
1619.27219.820
1718.76619.173
1818.32718.533
1918.06317.987
2017.61117.567
2117.27317.165
2216.93316.708
2316.68316.418
2416.35915.976
2516.03215.709
2615.78015.479
2715.50115.123
2815.20414.845
2914.95214.542
3014.69214.197
3114.44813.893
3214.19613.576
3313.87313.336
3413.59713.111
3513.38712.784
3613.19112.537
3712.98112.286
3812.77312.058
3912.60711.868
4012.43011.624
4112.24511.388
4212.06211.218
4311.88511.071
4411.70910.877
4511.53610.702
4611.38210.504
4711.25910.333
4811.03110.105
4910.8589.931
5010.6689.748
5110.5319.583
5210.3279.422
5310.1969.225
5410.0139.050
559.8688.856
569.7308.644
579.5658.515
589.4288.382
599.2568.243
609.1008.052
618.9537.873
628.8197.741
638.6757.615
648.5627.467
658.4167.350
668.2487.230
678.1597.119
688.0486.974
697.9186.826
707.7726.720
717.5916.576
727.4766.460
737.3436.325
747.1546.205
756.9996.071
766.8425.953
776.6915.824
786.5475.705
796.3635.591
806.2145.442
816.0465.302
825.9155.169
835.8015.019
845.6004.892
855.4504.783
865.2714.635
875.1084.483
884.9004.360
894.7444.212
904.5104.047
914.3153.892
924.0803.708
933.7813.510
943.5533.267
953.2563.090
962.9452.884
972.5772.575
982.1422.301
991.5391.966


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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