Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jul6.9626.3004.3431.7184.05430.513
Jul-Aug16.64012.93211.0343.30110.08365.394
Jul-Sep25.21216.59516.0874.48615.98080.337

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.06953.346
2036.77338.935
3032.05230.860
4028.02224.431
5024.54119.719
6021.29715.525
7018.22412.303
8015.0239.358
9010.9256.347

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.03096.151
260.76781.982
356.36576.511
453.51272.062
551.38768.798
649.64964.309
747.75761.192
846.46458.308
945.23755.463
1044.06953.346
1143.07851.603
1242.31649.695
1341.58848.259
1440.87746.829
1539.93645.268
1639.11344.039
1738.52842.613
1837.83241.174
1937.35839.917
2036.77338.935
2136.27337.993
2235.85536.951
2335.22936.228
2434.74535.182
2534.32934.531
2633.95133.973
2733.37433.130
2832.86232.465
2932.45631.697
3032.05230.860
3131.50830.100
3231.13029.336
3330.70628.737
3430.22028.150
3529.85327.353
3629.49826.721
3729.13226.096
3828.71625.518
3928.41725.046
4028.02224.431
4127.61523.842
4227.33023.409
4327.04123.046
4426.72522.552
4526.35422.110
4625.94321.620
4725.59921.178
4825.21720.607
4924.88820.179
5024.54119.719
5124.20319.305
5223.83518.894
5323.45718.418
5423.12217.966
5522.81317.512
5622.48416.967
5722.19416.648
5821.94616.328
5921.67215.979
6021.29715.525
6120.96815.077
6220.63914.752
6320.38814.452
6420.02714.086
6519.70413.803
6619.41713.516
6719.16313.249
6818.84512.904
6918.55212.553
7018.22412.303
7117.88811.962
7217.57111.691
7317.33311.376
7416.98111.096
7516.58110.789
7616.28310.516
7716.00710.221
7815.6929.950
7915.3829.693
8015.0239.358
8114.6299.045
8214.3088.750
8313.8878.418
8413.5328.142
8513.0857.904
8612.7117.586
8712.3387.261
8811.8927.000
8911.3596.690
9010.9256.347
9110.4486.030
9210.0015.658
939.3985.264
948.7464.789
958.0254.450
967.2334.062
976.4443.498
985.6573.013
994.0452.447


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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