Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Aug9.6786.6326.6911.5826.02934.881
Aug-Sep18.25010.29511.7442.76811.92649.824
Aug-Oct24.01913.68114.5053.43016.07859.671

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.60150.181
2035.45438.938
3030.19431.816
4026.15025.514
5022.51320.472
6019.19015.707
7016.18911.942
8013.0638.528
909.1785.211

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.00179.170
261.72369.919
355.88566.288
452.26463.300
549.95461.084
648.10357.996
746.67355.818
845.03553.775
943.93851.727
1042.60150.181
1141.69948.892
1240.87147.463
1340.04646.372
1439.39345.274
1538.49244.060
1637.76943.091
1737.15541.953
1836.46540.787
1935.96839.755
2035.45438.938
2134.82938.144
2234.17837.257
2333.68536.634
2433.05735.723
2532.54135.149
2632.05634.654
2731.57433.898
2831.14433.295
2930.65032.592
3030.19431.816
3129.72731.104
3229.29730.379
3328.86529.805
3428.49729.238
3528.05628.457
3627.58427.833
3727.17327.208
3826.81226.625
3926.47926.145
4026.15025.514
4125.79524.904
4225.41124.451
4325.02524.070
4424.53723.547
4524.25123.076
4623.92022.549
4723.60222.072
4823.20521.450
4922.87220.980
5022.51320.472
5122.08820.013
5221.78419.554
5321.41419.018
5421.05318.508
5520.75617.992
5620.39617.370
5720.14417.003
5819.87016.635
5919.55416.232
6019.19015.707
6118.91115.186
6218.60414.808
6318.31814.457
6418.00814.029
6517.74813.698
6617.49613.362
6717.19013.050
6816.78612.647
6916.54212.235
7016.18911.942
7115.95811.543
7215.66911.227
7315.38010.859
7415.07810.533
7514.79310.176
7614.4459.860
7714.1279.518
7813.7639.206
7913.3388.911
8013.0638.528
8112.7318.173
8212.3717.839
8312.0177.466
8411.6067.158
8511.2106.894
8610.7946.544
8710.4516.188
8810.0975.907
899.6495.574
909.1785.211
918.7624.879
928.2694.495
937.6634.096
947.1963.625
956.5933.297
966.0182.930
975.2442.414
984.1641.989
992.8001.518


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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