Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec3.4451.6721.0121.0833.34416.881
Dec-Jan5.4262.5371.6261.4444.58120.134
Dec-Feb7.0373.4182.2271.5056.11425.743

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.31611.492
203.5628.387
303.1576.751
402.8515.477
502.5834.546
602.3373.707
702.1003.048
801.8242.426
901.4741.758

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.18722.463
26.30418.561
35.66017.119
45.24115.976
55.00915.156
64.85014.054
74.67713.307
84.53012.629
94.40611.972
104.31611.492
114.20311.101
124.09310.679
134.01810.364
143.93810.053
153.8649.718
163.7939.456
173.7219.154
183.6688.852
193.6198.590
203.5628.387
213.5088.193
223.4587.980
233.4107.832
243.3747.619
253.3437.488
263.3037.375
273.2677.205
283.2277.072
293.1936.918
303.1576.751
313.1236.599
323.0956.447
333.0686.328
343.0416.212
353.0086.054
362.9715.929
372.9485.806
382.9125.692
392.8745.598
402.8515.477
412.8195.361
422.7915.275
432.7705.204
442.7435.106
452.7165.019
462.6854.922
472.6574.835
482.6324.722
492.6054.637
502.5834.546
512.5614.464
522.5404.382
532.5164.287
542.4874.197
552.4644.107
562.4403.997
572.4163.933
582.3863.869
592.3643.799
602.3373.707
612.3153.617
622.2933.551
632.2683.490
642.2413.415
652.2253.357
662.1963.298
672.1743.243
682.1563.172
692.1323.100
702.1003.048
712.0752.977
722.0532.921
732.0192.855
741.9932.796
751.9612.731
761.9352.673
771.9072.610
781.8862.553
791.8562.498
801.8242.426
811.7962.358
821.7682.294
831.7442.221
841.7062.161
851.6652.108
861.6322.038
871.5921.965
881.5561.906
891.5161.836
901.4741.758
911.4301.685
921.3851.598
931.3311.506
941.2651.392
951.1771.310
961.0811.215
970.9651.074
980.8590.950
990.6070.800


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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