Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun3.9463.7116.0781.4322.29519.027
Jun-Jul10.7628.05412.9273.1506.42249.540
Jun-Aug20.27414.74516.1374.73312.34384.421

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.94440.617
2025.28628.447
3021.54022.484
4018.37818.025
5016.04914.838
6013.87612.011
7011.8329.835
809.5077.789
906.9765.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.06598.788
248.64474.711
343.95766.917
440.62261.030
538.23456.788
636.25651.816
734.96548.439
834.05945.426
932.72042.634
1031.94440.617
1130.99039.012
1230.11037.327
1329.30536.068
1428.71634.766
1528.12533.492
1627.40132.504
1726.88631.275
1826.29330.153
1925.76429.191
2025.28628.447
2124.82627.712
2224.43026.867
2324.07526.392
2423.72925.619
2523.32825.146
2622.96924.740
2722.58924.111
2822.26323.622
2921.89923.089
3021.54022.484
3121.17921.953
3220.83821.400
3320.45320.981
3420.14320.591
3519.81020.024
3619.56419.597
3719.22419.163
3818.96518.771
3918.72818.444
4018.37818.025
4118.13417.622
4217.86217.332
4317.62917.081
4417.40416.749
4517.21516.452
4617.01116.115
4716.79715.825
4816.53515.440
4916.35415.146
5016.04914.838
5115.79214.561
5215.57514.290
5315.34513.960
5415.09313.667
5514.82413.345
5614.65212.992
5714.44612.777
5814.26112.558
5914.05812.327
6013.87612.011
6113.68311.716
6213.43811.499
6313.20711.294
6413.08011.051
6512.84210.859
6612.61110.664
6712.42410.482
6812.23810.247
6912.03410.007
7011.8329.835
7111.6529.602
7211.4369.415
7311.1829.198
7410.9339.005
7510.6838.791
7610.4978.601
7710.2518.395
789.9448.206
799.7338.025
809.5077.789
819.3127.568
829.0587.359
838.8077.122
848.5706.924
858.3266.753
868.0556.523
877.7926.286
887.5866.096
897.3075.867
906.9765.614
916.7115.377
926.3755.096
936.1254.797
945.8044.431
955.4564.167
964.9053.860
974.3303.406
983.5993.007
992.3922.527


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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